Investment bank Jefferies said the recent rise in gold prices cannot be explained solely by traditional factors and instead points to Tether as a major new buyer.
Certification data and on-chain activity show that the stablecoin issuer has accumulated significant bullion in recent months, tightening supply and helping fuel the strong rally, the bank said in Thursday’s report.
The precious metal is up more than 50% this year and is currently trading around $4,080 an ounce.
Jefferies first flagged Tether’s interest after the company met with miners and royalty firms in Denver last fall, and investors told the bank that Tether was aiming to buy around 100 tons this year. CEO Paolo Ardoino’s public comments about adding gold to reserves and raising the price to $1,000 per ounce strengthened the case.
Analysts led by Andrew Moss estimated that Tether held at least 116 tons of gold at the end of the third quarter, with 12 tons backing its XAUt currently has a market capitalization of around $1.5 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.
What stands out is the pace of accumulation: about 26 tons in the third quarter alone, equivalent to about 2% of global demand, analysts said. While it was not enough to overwhelm central bank flows, the purchases likely reduced short-term supply and boosted bullish sentiment.
Tether is expected to continue accumulating as USDT grows and gold continues to account for around 7% of reserves, according to the report. With Ardoino projecting $15 billion in profits by 2025, the bank’s analysts calculated that even putting half of that into bullion could add nearly 60 tons annually.
Tether’s planned GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin, USAT, will not require gold reserves, leaving its long-term impact on USDT and gold demand uncertain, the report noted.
Analysts also cited Tether’s growing investments across the gold ecosystem, including more than $300 million in royalties and streaming ventures this year. The bank sees these bets as further evidence of a broader metals strategy. HSBC’s recent hiring of two major metals traders suggests Tether’s gold momentum is accelerating rather than slowing.
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