The idea of ”safe shelter” assets, traditionally marked by gold and government bonds, agitation of the Amide market, is being tested as never before.
For decades, the construction of the portfolio and risk management were simple: 60% of variable income, 40% of bonds and when the markets panicked, capital generally flowed to the gold and government bonds. These assets were slow, stable and predictable, which makes them an ideal shelter for investors seeking protection against volatility. But in the current world of 24/7 markets, geopolitical instability and growing distrust in sovereign systems have changed that logic to the head, asking the question: Does the definition of a safe refuge need an update?
Enter the new child in the block: Bitcoin.
It is very volatile, widely misunderstood often discarded as a speculative asset by many corners of Wall Street and Main Street. However, it has organized an extraordinary career since the COVID-19 market moves.
Sucidate more than 1,000% from the Covid-19 market clash in March 2020. During that same period, long-term bonds, measured through Ishares of more than 20 years, ETF treasury bonds (TLT), decrease 50% of its maximum 2020. Even gold, the true and proven active of safe refuge, up to 90% for five years, looks less impressive when it fits monetary degradation, which only in 2020, in 2020, more than 40% of USD’s total money supply is printed.
Even so, Bitcoin’s safe refuge credential is still disputed by investors.
In several recent risk events, he acted less as a coverage and more as a high beta risk asset against the invest incesco QQQ Trust, ETF Series 1.
- COVID-19 (March 2020): BTC fell 40% compared to QQQ 27%
- Banking crisis (March 2023): BTC -14%, QQQ -7%
- Yen Carry Trade Decinding (August 2024): BTC -20%, QQQ -6%
- Selloff led by the rate (April 2025): BTC -11%, QQQ -16%
The first three examples show Bitcoin as a kind of leverage technological trade. But the most recent tariff shock broke the pattern: Bitcoin fell less than the Nasdaq, showing the relative force in a weak macro environment driven by the tariffs of President Trump.
While these data points may not make a trend, this evolving behavior highlights a broader phenomenon: the global financial fund curtain has changed.
“Non -sovereign value stores, such as Bitcoin, should work well,” said Nydig Research in a note. “Politically neutral assets should be exempt from global machinations at play at this time.”
Bitcoin is volatile, yes, but it is also globally liquid, decentralized, resistant to censorship and immune to tariffs or the policy of the Central Bank. In an era of geopolitical tension and financial repression, these attributes begin to make the asset seem more durable than other safe shelters.
Meanwhile, traditional safe shelters do not look so safe. Gold profits are less impressive when weighed against the monetary expansion scale. Long -lasting bonds are not much better, since 30 -year treasure performance is approaching 5%, which makes them painful for wallets.
Since the mass sale began last Thursday, Nasdaq has fallen almost 10%, Bitcoin has dropped 6%, TLT has fallen more than 4%and gold has reduced more than 3%. Meanwhile, the DXY index, which tracks the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, remains relatively flat, while the important 10 -year treasure performance in the United States has increased almost 8%.
On a risk adjusted by the risk, Bitcoin remains firm, which does not have a worse performance than traditional secure refuge assets such as gold or TLT.
When observing these four main events of crisis, a pattern arises: each liquidation in Bitcoin has marked a significant long -term background. During the Covid accident, BTC fell to ~ $ 4,000, a level never seen. In the bank of March 2023, it fell briefly below $ 20,000 before resuming its increase. The relaxed trade of and on August 2024 reduced it to $ 49,000, again, a level that has not returned. If the history is a guide, wherever this current bass takes us, you can establish the following long -term floor.
So is Bitcoin a safe shelter?
If the ancient framed, low volatility and downward protection during a panic, it still remains, then BTC falls short.
But in a financial world dominated by sovereign risk, inflation and uncertainty of constant policy, Bitcoin begins to look more like an asset that investors could have to consider for durability, neutrality and liquidity.
In this evolving landscape, perhaps Bitcoin is not failing in the safe refuge test. Perhaps the old play book of what Safe have is needs to change.
