The exceptionalism of the United States, the notion that the US economy and its financial markets are different compared to those of other nations, remain alive and well, at least according to capital markets.
Since the fall in early April, the Nasdaq index with Wall Street technology has increased by 31%, while the wider S&P index has recovered 24%, according to the TrainingView data source. Other important indices, such as Dax of Germany, the CAC of France, Nikkei of Japan and the China Shanghai compound, have been left behind Wall Street.
Both Nasdaq and the S&P 500 were negotiated in records on Thursdays. The demand for the United States Treasury notes has remained in the midst of concerns about fiscal sustainability, as Coindesk pointed out last month.
The data contradict the popular narrative that capital flows are rebuilding the mass of the United States due to the nerves of the debt and the commercial war of President Donald Trump and the repeated criticisms of the Federal Reserve.
“Several key factors that supported the exceptionalism of the United States remain completely intact and perhaps they are even strengthening even more,” said Hani Redha, portfolio manager, head of strategy and research of global multiple assets in Pinebridge Investments, published in a blog post published last month.
Redha pointed out Trump’s deregulation as a key factor that supports the United States productivity supercycle, unique among global peers, and its protagonist worldwide.
The economy validates the exceptionalism of the United States
Other economic variables, such as the real growth of GDP per capita, also support the narrative of exceptionalism. The metric measures the rate at which the value of goods and services produced by person in an economy is adjusted by inflation.
“The United States exceeds EU in terms of real growth of GDP per capita. The reasons for that are deeply structural and have not changed a little. The exceptionalism of the United States, at least for growth, is here to stay …”, Robin Brooks, main member of the Global Economics and Development Program in the Brookings institution, he said in X. In X.
The US job data published on Thursday added another participation in the “loss of the narrative of American exceptionalism, as Bruce J Clark, head of tariffs at Informa Global Markets, said in Informa Markets, on LinkedIn.
Implications for BTC and DXY
The return of the exceptionalism of the United States for the actions of the United States. UU. It can be seen as a positive development for Bitcoin
and the broader cryptographic market, given the positive historical correlation between the two.
BTC, the leading cryptocurrency for market value, has already increased 44% to $ 108,000, quickly recovering from the minimums of early April of almost $ 75,000, according to Coindesk data. In addition, with President Pro-Crypto in the White House, one can argue that Bitcoin is part of the United States exceptionalism game.
Meanwhile, the return of American exceptionalism could also put an apartment under the US dollar. “With today’s job data that put another participation in the narrative of ‘Loss of American exceptionalism’, the temptation to obtain long dollars here for a trend trade is large and growing,” Clark said, and added the growing discomfort of the ECB officials with the strong euro.
Earlier this week, the FT reported, citing a senior ECB official, that the Central Bank may need to indicate that too much strengthening could be a problem, since it could lead to inflation to go under the objectives. Meanwhile, in an interview with Bloomberg, the Vice President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, said that the “excess” of the euro should be avoided, marking levels above 1.20 as complicated.
