The SEC finally cleared the way to accelerate altcoin ETFs, but a government shutdown may delay applications for a The ETF has been left in limbo until 2026, and bettors on Polymarket are undervaluing it.
After scrapping 19b-4 filings and approving “generic listing standards” to accelerate altcoin ETFs, traders are betting a 90% chance that ADA ETF approval will come by the end of 2025.
But with a 36% chance of a month-long government shutdown, that 10% “No” may prove to be the smartest move, since even “absurdly fast” approvals can’t happen when the lights are out.
According to the SEC’s contingency plan, only about 390 of its 4,200 employees remain on duty, focused exclusively on emergencies and market monitoring, rather than new product approvals.
ETF issuers can still submit filings through the EDGAR system, per the contingency plan, but no staff is available to review, comment on, or expedite them. With all IPO reviews already halted, the same logjam now threatens to halt the wave of altcoin ETFs that were expected to advance under the SEC’s new fast-track listing framework introduced in September.
An analysis of contracts related to the government shutdown shows that Polymarket bettors see federal trading resuming towards the end of October or early November, with around October 30 as the consensus expectation.
For the SEC, that timeline means at least three more weeks without the staff needed to review filings or advance pending crypto ETFs like Cardano’s, and there are 89 other crypto ETF applications also on the docket, in addition to the usual array of approvals needed for traditional financial products.
Even if the agency reopens by then, it will have only about eight work weeks before the holiday slowdown, and Thanksgiving will narrow that window even further.
In extended date contracts, Polymarket traders now assign about a 31% chance that the closure will extend into November, approaching the record of 35 days set in 2018-19.
A lapse of that length would leave the SEC with even less time to clear a growing backlog that already includes stalled IPO reviews, delayed enforcement cases, and the newly streamlined but still pending crypto ETF filings.
There is certainly a chance that the ADA ETF will be approved before the end of the year. It’s impossible to say where it falls on the list of considerations before agency staff, but it would be fair to say it ranks high on the list.
At the same time, considering the stalemate in Washington reflected in the Polymarket odds, there is also a chance this could be prolonged.
So there is an 11% chance that the ADA ETF will not be approved in 2025? It may not be 100%, but the chances of a delay are clearly higher than the market suggests.
