Political tractors in Polymket and other platforms are paying attention to Canada while the nation goes to the polls.
As the country’s choice 45 comes to an end, a contract asking the traigators who predict who will be the next Prime Minister of Canada, gives Mark Carney to the Liberal Party 78% possibilities, and conservatives Pierre Poilievre 22% shot.
Political stationers are a bit more skeptical about the chances of winning Carby and winning than surveys, but both point in the same direction. An aggregator of Public Issuer surveys CBC puts the possibilities of Carney at 89%.
Myriad Markets, another prediction market, is giving Carby -like probabilities to Polymarket.
Fanduel, an open license betting platform only for Ontario residents, Canada, initially gave conservatives acute and contrary to 70%, according to a report by the National Post. Even so, the probabilities have in line with prediction markets, and now gives liberals a probability of approximately 80% of winning.
Unlike American elections, there is no cryptographic angle in the north with the campaigns of leaders focused on commercial war and inflation.
Too big to rig?
A growing narrative in certain internet corners is that Polymarket is prone to manipulation and its numbers are not reliable, the criticisms that echoed what was said in recent weeks of the US elections when the site gave Donald Trump a dominant advantage when the surveys showed a tight race.
Critics say that Pailievre’s possibilities are suppressed and do not reflect the political feeling of the population.
However, manipulating prediction markets would be expensive, and there is no credible evidence that this is happening, even when the Polymket is prohibited in the largest province in Canada after an agreement with its securities regulator.
Polymarket data portal analysis shows that the Canadian electoral contract leads the platform in open interest, which is the total value of active and unstable bets and a good measure of market share.
Market data also show that the position possession is quite distributed, with the largest holder of the Pailivere, without the side of the hiring that has 6% of all the shares and the largest holder on the Fedey side, which has one side of 5%.
An betr, who is betting on Carney with a six -digit position, who spoke with Coindesk, said his motives are not partisan and said that the quality of Canadian surveys is confident that the liberals will win.
“Poilievre needs a 7 -point voting error to win and I think the probability that it is closer to 7% than its current market price of 23 ° C,” Tenadome merchant said to Coindesk through an X DM. “The Pailievre group of traigators seems to be largely a very silly money that believes that in China is handling the surveys.”
Currently, the merchant with the largest profits in the contract is “Ball-Sack” with a gain of $ 124,890, thanks to Bets On Carny. On the other side of the commerce is “Biden4prez”, which lost just over $ 98,000, the largest amount of merchant, betting on Pailievre and against Carney.
Read more: Preview of the cryptographic angle of Canadian elections
