Israel and the United States’ illegal invasion of Iran may have created a groundswell of enthusiasm among warmongers sitting in the corridors of power in Washington and Tel Aviv, but it appears to be pushing the Middle East toward a conflagration that could engulf other parts of the world.
The conflict has exposed the hypocrisy of the Western world, as well as calling into question the credibility of European leaders who quickly threw their support behind Israel, which has been accused of carrying out war crimes in the occupied territories of Palestine and elsewhere in the region. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Macron and the vaunted new leader of Western countries, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, issued statements suggesting that the aggression was committed not by Washington and Tel Aviv but by Tehran. While his statements expressed concern about Iranian attacks on Arab states, they offered no comment on the annihilation of Iranian civilians, including more than 160 schoolchildren.
Critics believe that the United States has once again resorted to outright lies to justify this invasion, and US President Donald Trump and his tedious acolytes claim that Iran was a threat to the security of the only superpower and its allies. This was the same excuse used in the past by George Bush Jr. and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair during the Iraq War. Reports from international institutions and independent global bodies showed that his claims were completely fabricated and used to seize Iraqi oil.
The Trump administration has used the Iranian nuclear program as an excuse to impose this illegal invasion, somewhat refuting its own claim to dismantle Iran’s nuclear infrastructure during last year’s 12-day war. Many feel that it is actually Iran’s resources that the United States and its companies dream of capturing. There has been tremendous pressure on the Iranian government to open its markets to the vultures of the capitalist world, which Iran has always resisted. The military strength of the Islamic Republic is said to be the second factor that prompted Israel and the United States to invade the country, plunging it into death and destruction.
To achieve this goal, Washington and Tel Aviv are attempting another regime change, which could prove a recipe for disaster not only for the region but also for the world’s only powerful power. The United States managed to install docile leaders in Libya and Syria by indirectly interfering in the affairs of those countries or carrying out limited intervention in the case of Syria. However, in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States and its allies had to resort to ruthless force to carry out regime change. Despite this, they were not in a position to prop up new governments.
Sending troops to those countries turned out to be catastrophic. The United States and its allies lost thousands of soldiers and thousands more were maimed or wounded. Washington also had to spend about $8 trillion on the two conflicts, according to the Watson Institute at Brown University. The end result: a humiliating withdrawal by the two countries.
In all of these countries, the United States encouraged local ethnic and sectarian entities to ally themselves with occupying forces or anti-government elements. This sharpened divisions in these societies, with different sectors still fighting each other in countries such as Libya and Syria.
It appears that Washington is also trying to apply the same formula in Iran, which has multiple ethnic and sectarian fault lines. The Trump administration has reportedly been in contact with Kurds and other ethnic groups who have faced repression and repression by the Iranian government in the past and appear ready to fight the theocratic system. Washington could also try to involve other non-Persian entities in Iran to weaken the government.
The Baloch of eastern Iran could also be a possible collaborator with the invading forces of Israel and the United States. Dissident Iranian elements based in the United States and other parts of the world could also use this opportunity to return and lead the anti-government battle in an attempt to overthrow the Iranian government.
But such an American approach would spell disaster for the entire region and might not sit well with some of the United States’ allies. Any attempt to strengthen the Iranian Kurds risks rejuvenating the desires of Kurds in Iraq, Turkey and Syria to create their own homeland, angering Baghdad, Damascus and Ankara, which, in one way or another, are friends of the United States. Support for the Iranian Baloch would anger Islamabad, which has historically been a close ally of the United States.
The United States could bomb Iran mercilessly, but those airstrikes still would not bring about regime change. That would require ground troops, risking American lives and forcing the Iranians to wage a guerrilla war. Such a situation would jeopardize the popularity of Trump, who won the election with a promise of non-intervention.
While sections of Iranian society are unhappy with Iran’s theocratic government, it is equally possible that most Iranians will end up despising the very idea of intervention and collaboration with enemies. And, while some ethnic entities such as the Kurds and Baluchis seek independence from the central authority, there are other ethnic entities within the Islamic Republic that share the same sect as the majority of Persian-speaking Iranians. Despite having different ethnic origins, these national entities share the same name. Therefore, they would not accept the idea of destroying a country that considers itself a protector of their faith.
However, the Israeli and US measures appear to be sowing the seeds of chaos in the region, with far-reaching consequences that could include the disruption of air and sea transport, as well as skyrocketing prices for energy and other commodities. His desire to see the balkanization of Iran would plunge the country into a protracted civil war, which could cause mass displacement, killings and destruction of infrastructure. Europe has witnessed a 35% increase in gas prices. The price of oil is also experiencing an upward spiral, while the global supply chain and supply face the risk of major disruptions.
If the situation does not normalize, it would also create a migration crisis for the region and Europe. Therefore, American allies in the region and Europe must act to prevent Israel and the United States from sowing the seeds of chaos in the region.
The writer is a freelance journalist who can be contacted at: [email protected]
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of PakGazette.tv.
Originally published in The News
