By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Uh oh, the bitcoin The price pattern that heralded the final and deeper phases of previous bear markets has reappeared.
In mid-November 2018, CoinDesk analyzed a bearish reversal in long-term averages on a chart that groups three days of price action into each candle. He warned that a similar event in 2014 deepened the bear market and, within a week, bitcoin plunged to below $4,500 from $6,000, extending the decline from the high of about $20,000.
Cut to April 2022. The same pattern occurred, with the same result. The BTC bear market deepened and prices plummeted to $17,500 from $32,000, having already fallen from the late 2021 record of nearly $70,000.
Now, the pattern has returned again (see Technical Analysis section). While past performance is no guarantee of future results, history calls for caution. Some smart traders are preparing for a deeper drop below $60,000.
Bitcoin recently traded near $66,100, down 3% in 24 hours. Other major tokens and the CoinDesk 20 index lost even more. Still, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have raised more than $1 billion in three days.
“That breadth of demand indicates absorption rather than speculation,” Nexo Dispatch analyst Iliya Kalchev said in an email. “On-chain data reinforces the shift: Wallets holding more than 10,000 Bitcoin have accumulated during the recent pullback from the $70,000 region, suggesting long-term holders are stepping in as supply dwindles.”
Still, ETF flows must persist to lift BTC sustainably, Kalchev said.
In traditional markets, oil prices remain supported by uncertainty between the United States and Iran and the possibility of an escalation over the weekend. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- February 27, 8:30 am: US monthly PPI for January estimated at 0.3% (previously 0.5%); Basic PPI estimated monthly 0.3% (previous 0.7%)
- Feb 27, 8:30 am: US YoY PPI for January estimated at 2.9% (previously 3%)
- February 27, 8:30 am: Canada’s annualized GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter (previously 2.6%); QoQ (previously 0.6%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- 1inch DAO is voting to allocate 2,000,000 USDC from its treasury to the Aave V3 market on Ethereum to generate yield. Voting ends March 1.
- Unlock
- February 28 – Grass (GRASS) will unlock 13.15% of its circulating supply worth $10.09 million.
- February 28: Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 7.94% of its circulating supply worth $39.34 million.
- March 1: to unlock 1.13% of its circulating supply worth $40.97 million.
- Token releases
- February 27: Fabric Protocol (ROBO) will appear on Binance, Bybit, Bitget, KuCoin and others.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC remains unchanged as of 4 pm ET on Thursday at $67,423.09 (24 hours: -0.95%)
- ETH is down 0.89% to $2,012.51 (24 hours: -2%)
- CoinDesk 20 unchanged at 1,968.26 (24 hours: -2.49%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 4 Basis Points to 2.89%
- BTC funding rate is -0.006% (-6.5799% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 97.74
- Gold futures unchanged at $5,191.50
- Silver futures rise 2.82% to $90.05
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 0.16% at 58,850.27
- Hang Seng closed up 0.95% at 26,630.54
- The FTSE rises 0.39% to 10,888.78
- Euro Stoxx 50 unchanged at 6,161.33
- The DJIA closed Thursday up 0.03% at 49,499.20
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.54% at 6,908.86
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.18% at 22,878.38
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.1% at 34,501.96
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 1.4% to 3,772.90
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 3 basis points to 3.987%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.28% to 6,900.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.19% at 25,033.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures down 0.48% to 49,294.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.49% (-0.11%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02973 (-1.06%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,055 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.31
- Total fees: 3.43 BTC / $232,808
- CME Futures Open Interest: 107,780 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 12.8 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.46%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows BTC price swings over a three-day period in 2024-2025 and 2018-2022 candlestick format. Each candle clusters the price action observed over three days or 72 hours.
- In this chart, the 50 and 200 candle moving averages have crossed to the downside.
- Similar patterns led to deeper declines in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $181.06 (-1.57%), unchanged from the previous market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $87.21 (+4.90%), unchanged from the previous market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.94 (-3.90%)
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $32.73 (-0.49%), unchanged in the pre-market
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.45 (-1.40%), +15.98% to $9.80
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $17.09 (+0.06%), +0.12% at $17.11
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.98 (-0.55%), -1.50% at $17.71
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.44 (-0.10%), -0.77% at $10.36
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $42.17 (-0.40%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.45 (-1.69%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $133.40 (-1.66%), +0.62% at $134.23
- Strive (ASST): closed at $8.19 (-4.10%), +0.24% to $8.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $7.21 (-3.09%), +0.55% to $7.25
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.76 (-7.87%), +0.22% at $0.76
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.14 (-3.39%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $254.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: $54.81 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $6.6 million
- Accumulated net flows: 11.68 billion dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~5.72 million
Source: Farside Investors
