Asian stocks posted their best day in months and S&P 500 futures rose after the president said he would address the nation Wednesday night with an “important update” on Iran. Oil narrowed losses as the United Arab Emirates prepares to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force.
Bitcoin traded at $67,950 on Tuesday, up 0.2% in 24 hours, as a wave of optimism about a possible end to the conflict with Iran boosted risk assets across the board. Ether rose 1.6% to $2,100, its strongest daily move in weeks.
XRP gained 0.5% to $1.34, dogecoin added 0.5% to $0.09 and BNB rose 0.4% to $616. Solana’s SOL was the biggest laggard, falling 0.7% to $83.14 and extending weekly losses to 8.7%.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4%, its best session since the war began, with almost 10 stocks rising for every one that fell. Asian tech rose 6.5%, led by Samsung and SK Hynix, which rose more than 9% each. S&P 500 futures rose and the index posted its biggest single-day gain since May.
The catalyst was Trump telling reporters that he hoped the war would be over in two or three weeks and that a deal with Iran was not a prerequisite to ending the conflict. He announced a national speech on Wednesday at 9 p.m.
Eastern to provide what it called a “major update.” Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told the EU Council president that Tehran has “the necessary will to end this war” but expects guarantees against future aggression.
Separately, the Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the United States and its allies reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, which would make them the first Gulf state to enter the conflict as a combatant. Brent crude oil rose above $105 again after falling on Tuesday.
The cryptocurrency market reaction was subdued relative to stocks, a pattern that has held for weeks. Bitcoin has spent the entire war oscillating between $65,000 and $73,000, while stocks swing wildly on every headline. The gap between the crypto sideways range and the falling stock market correction level remains the most notable divergence in the cross-asset landscape.
There were reasons for cautious optimism beyond geopolitics. Morgan Stanley received approval for a bitcoin ETF that charges just 14 basis points, 11 below the category average. The product opens access to Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors managing $6.2 trillion, a channel that previously had no direct exposure to bitcoin ETFs.
Alex Blume, CEO of Two Prime, pointed to three catalysts that could drive bitcoin higher in the second quarter: Morgan Stanley’s ETF, the continued success of Strategy’s STRC preferred stock product in financing bitcoin purchases, and a quick resolution of the Iran war.
“Much of the market uncertainty could be resolved soon,” Blume said in an email to CoinDesk. “Along with new purchasing power, a strong second quarter may be on the horizon.”
Gold advanced for the fourth consecutive day to near $4,700, although its nearly 12% drop in March was its worst monthly performance since October 2008. The precious metal’s ongoing weakness during an active war continues to break historical precedents.
Whether Trump’s speech on Wednesday produces an actual off-ramp or just another headline in a month that has been full of them will determine whether this rally sustains. As one analyst said: “I’m not convinced in the long term. Investors will soon want concrete proof that the end of the war is in sight.”
