President Donald Trump ends the third week of the Iran war facing a crisis that appears to be slipping out of his hands: Global energy prices are rising, the United States is isolated from its allies and more troops are preparing to deploy despite his promise that the war would be only a “short jaunt.”
A defensive Trump called other NATO countries “cowards” for refusing to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and insisted the campaign was going “according to plan.” But his statement on Friday that the battle “was WON militarily” clashed with the reality of a defiant Iran that is choking off Gulf oil and gas supplies while launching missile attacks across the region.
Trump, who took office promising to keep the United States out of “stupid” military interventions, now appears to control neither the outcome nor the messaging of a conflict he helped start. The lack of a clear exit strategy carries risks for both his presidential legacy and his party’s political prospects, as Republicans struggle to defend narrow congressional majorities in November’s midterm elections.
“Trump has built himself a box called the Iran war and he doesn’t know how to get out of it,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for the Republican and Democratic administrations. “That’s their biggest source of frustration.”
A White House official disputed that characterization, with many of Iran’s top leaders eliminated in targeted assassinations, most of its navy sunk and its ballistic missile arsenal largely destroyed.
“This has been an indisputable military success,” the official said.
Limits on Trump’s powers
The limits of Trump’s power – diplomatically, militarily and politically – were clearly highlighted over the past week.
It was caught off guard by the resistance of other NATO members and other foreign partners to deploy their navies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, according to another White House official who, like other officials Reuters spoke to for this article, was granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Because the president does not want to appear isolated, some White House advisers have advised Trump to quickly find a “way out” and set limits on the scope of the military operation, said a person close to the discussions. But it was unclear whether that argument was enough to sway Trump.
In the view of some analysts, the allies’ lack of will reflects not only their reluctance to become involved in a war about which they were not consulted, but also a reaction against their disregard for traditional alliances with the United States since their return to power 14 months ago.
Differences with Israel have also begun to emerge: Trump insisted he knew nothing in advance about the Israeli attack on the South Pars gas field in Iran, while Israeli officials said the attack had been coordinated with the United States.
Trump now finds himself at a crossroads in Operation Epic Fury with no clear signs of which path he might take, analysts say.
It could go all out and escalate the American offensive, possibly even taking Iran’s oil hub on Kharg Island or deploying troops along Iran’s coast to search for missile launchers. But that would jeopardize a long-term military commitment that most of the American public would oppose.
Or, if both sides reject negotiations for now, Trump could declare victory and “attempt to withdraw,” potentially alienating Gulf allies who would be left with a wounded and hostile Iran, one that could still pursue a crude nuclear weapon and still exert control over shipping in the Gulf. Iran has denied it is seeking a nuclear weapon.
Reuters reported on Friday that the US military is deploying thousands of additional Marines and Marines to the Middle East, although no decision has been made to send troops to Iran itself.
The war has also shown that Trump’s once-tight grip on his MAGA movement is weakening, with prominent influencers speaking out against the conflict. While his base has largely supported him so far, analysts say Trump’s grip could weaken in the coming weeks if gas prices continue to rise and U.S. troops are deployed.
“As the economy develops,” said Republican strategist Dave Wilson, “people will start to say, ‘Why am I paying high gas prices again? … Why is the Strait of Hormuz now determining whether or not I can take a vacation next month?'”
As the economy develops,” said Republican strategist Dave Wilson, “people will start saying, ‘Why am I paying high gas prices again?’ …Why does the Strait of Hormuz now determine whether or not I can take a vacation next month?
Calculation errors
Since the start of the war on February 28, there has been a growing realization within the administration that the conflict and its consequences should have been planned better in advance, according to two sources familiar with White House thinking, although the first White House official responded that the campaign was extensively planned and well equipped for any potential action.
Analysts say Trump’s biggest error in judgment was over how Iran would respond to a conflict it sees as existential.
Tehran has retaliated with its remaining missiles and a fleet of armed drones to counter the military superiority of its enemies, attacking neighboring Gulf states and largely closing the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes.
Whether Trump and his advisers foresaw the dangers or not, they have failed to effectively counter them.
“They didn’t think about the contingencies around the ways in which a conflict with Iran could deviate, where it might not play out according to the plan they had presented,” said former US ambassador John Bass, who served in Afghanistan and Turkey.
As the conflict has dragged on, there have been growing signs of Trump’s frustration with his inability to control the narrative. In recent days, he has stormed the media, leveling unfounded accusations of “treason” over reports he believes undermine the war effort.
“He’s having a hard time directing the news cycle, as he’s used to, because he still can’t explain why he’s taken this country to war and what’s coming next,” said Brett Bruen, a former Obama administration foreign policy adviser who now runs the Situation Room strategy consultancy in Washington. “He seems to have lost his charm when it comes to texting.”
