Tom Lee says U.S. stocks can end 2025 higher and that cryptocurrencies should rally through the end of the year after heavy deleveraging, and he made his case during an interview Friday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime.”
Pressed by co-host Jon Fortt on whether risk is back, Lee, president of Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) as well as head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and chief investment officer at Fundstrat Capital, noted that he remained bullish throughout the spring drop, reminding viewers that Fundstrat’s S&P 500 year-end target was 6,600 at April lows.
With the index around 6,800 and about 10 weeks left, he said a “typical year” would add about 4%, which “puts us at over 7,000 at the end of the year,” and argued the gain could be as much as 10%. He linked the silver lining to Federal Reserve cuts that began in September after a long pause – something he said has occurred only in 1998 and 2024 in the past 50 years – as well as persistent investor skepticism that may fuel late-year gains.
When asked by Fortt how cryptocurrencies fit alongside tariff and trade concerns, Lee pointed to October 10 as “the biggest sell-off event in five years,” saying the surge was sparked in part by escalating tariff tensions between the United States and China. Despite that, bitcoin fell only 3% to 4%, which he framed as a sign of resilience. “If this happened in gold… and gold was only down a few percentage points, we… would consider that real validation,” he said, calling bitcoin a “pretty good store of value” in that context.
He sees the setup improving towards the end of the year, noting that both bitcoin and ether are at record lows in open interest (a measure of outstanding futures and options positions), while technicals are “turning positive.” A cleaner environment for derivatives, he said, often precedes the rally. Lee also highlighted a supportive headline from traditional finance, saying it helps to see JPMorgan “open to the idea of using cryptocurrencies as collateral.”
Co-host Morgan Brennan then asked if the cryptocurrency tone is still leading stocks and how bitcoin and ether relate to US indices. Lee responded that the signals appear “quite bullish,” arguing that cryptocurrencies often set the direction for stocks and broader liquidity. He linked bitcoin’s performance to the S&P 500 and said ether has implications for small-cap companies through the Russell 2000.
Turning to fundamentals, Lee said Ethereum activity is increasing on both L1 and L2, driven by stablecoins, but that usage needs time to be reflected in the price, supporting his view of a “pretty big move” towards the end of the year for ETH and BTC.
US stocks closed higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 at 6,791.69 (+0.79% on the day, +15.73% year-to-date), the Nasdaq Composite at 23,204.87 (+1.15%, +20.35% year-to-date) and the Dow at 47,207.12 (+1.01%, +11.36% to date). At 12:50 pm UTC on Saturday, bitcoin changed hands at $111,776 (+0.3% in 24 hours, +19.60% YTD) and ether at $3,952 (-0.4% in 24 hours, +18.15% YTD).
