The Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo will end the suspense when he announced the winner on Friday at 11:00 a.m. (09:00 GMT).
The backdrop is gloomy: the number of armed conflicts worldwide that involve at least one state has never been as high as in 2024, since the University of Uppsala de Sweden began its database on global conflicts in 1946.
Trump has repeatedly said that he deserves the prestigious prize to resolve “eight conflicts”, but experts predict that it will not be the election of the committee, at least not this year.
“No, this year will not be Trump,” said Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert in international affairs. AFP.
“But maybe next year? By then, the dust will have settled around its various initiatives, including Gaza’s crisis,” he added.
Numerous experts consider Trump’s claims exaggerated as a “peacemaker” and express concern about the consequences of their first “United States” policy.
Donald Trump insists that he deserves the prize to resolve “eight conflicts”, something that experts question.
“Beyond trying to negotiate peace for Gaza, we have seen policies that actually go against intentions and what is written in the Testament of (Alfred) Nobel, particularly promoting international cooperation, the fraternity of nations and disarmament,” said Nina Grager, director of the Oslo Peace Research Institute.
For Grager, Trump’s list of actions that are not aligned with the ideals of the Nobel Peace Prize is long.
Trump retired to the United States from international organizations and multilateral treaties, launched commercial wars against allies and enemies equally, threatened to snatch Greenland from Denmark by force, ordered the entry of the National Guard to US cities and attacked academic freedoms and expression of universities.
“We take into account the complete panorama,” said Jorgen Watne Frydnes, president of the Five Members Committee granted by the La Paz Prize.
“The whole organization or personality of that person matters, but the first thing we observe is what they have really been achieving for the good of peace,” he said.
Incontverted choice?
This year, 338 people and organizations have been nominated for the La Paz Award, and the list remained secret for 50 years.
Tens of thousands of people can propose candidates, including legislators and cabinet members of all countries, former awards, certain university professors and members of the Nobel Committee.
The president of the Committee said that its five members will take everything into account when granting the prize.
In 2024, the prize went to the Japanese group of survivors of the Nihon Hidankyo atomic bomb for their efforts to ban nuclear weapons.
Without a clear favorite this year, several names have been spinning in Oslo before Friday’s announcement.
The emergency response rooms of Sudan have been mentioned, a network of volunteers who risk their lives to feed and help people who support war and hungry 1, as well as Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of the critic of the Kremlin Alexei Navalny, and the office of democratic institutions and human rights, electoral control organism.
The elections of the Nobel Committee in recent years have demonstrated “a return to more micro things, somewhat closer to the classic ideas of peace”, focusing on “human rights, democracy, press freedom and women,” said Halvard Leira, director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs.
The Japanese Survivors of the Atomic Pump, Nihon Hidankyo, won the 2024 award for its efforts to ban nuclear weapons.
“My heart would probably be in favor of a candidate not so controversial this year,” he said.
The Nobel Committee could also choose to reaffirm its commitment to a world order that Trump is currently challenging when granting the United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, or a UN agency such as his UNHCR Refugee Agency or the Palestine Aid Agency UNRWA.
He could also approve International Courts such as the International Court of Justice or the International Criminal Court, or defending press releases currently attacked by giving it to the Committee for the Protection of Journalists OA Reporters Without Borders.
But the committee could also do what he has done many times before and choose a completely unexpected winner.
