US Inflation Data Takes Center Stage: Crypto Week Ahead

Inflation returns to the spotlight this week, with a new influx of data likely to shape expectations for US interest rates and risk assets like bitcoin. btc$69,205.26.

Thursday’s US Core PCE reading for February and Friday’s March CPI release will test the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait before cutting rates. At the beginning of this year, rate cuts seemed almost certain. That has changed. At Polymarket, the odds of no rate cuts in 2026 rose from around 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that bitcoin has already “priced in a (U.S.) recession” and acted as a “canary in the coal mine,” underperforming signals from financial conditions and forward-looking indicators.

Recent data complicates that view. The ISM manufacturing index surprised to the upside in March, suggesting the U.S. economy may be more resilient to higher oil prices than in previous cycles.

Following the release, market-based recession odds for this year fell from around 37% to 28%.

As the price of bitcoin has taken a storm, Dragosch noted that bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio “is significantly skewed to the upside.” Still, an unexpected escalation of the war in the Middle East could provoke the aforementioned storm.

What to watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • April 6, 12 pm: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) will host a March 2026 roundup and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session at X Spaces.
  • April 8: The stable version of Stellar’s Yardstick protocol will be available.
  • April 9: The Airfield Flying School will conclude and merge with the Public Goods Fund to form the Momentum Fund.
  • April 9: Binance will migrate all DAI features to USDS.
• Macro
  • Apr 6, 09:00 am: US ISM services PMI for March estimated 55 (previous 56.1)
  • April 7, 07:15 am: Weekly change in US ADP employment (estimated 10,000)
  • April 7, 7:30 am: US Durable Goods Monthly Orders for February est 04% (previous 0%)
  • April 7, 11:35 am: Chicago Federal Reserve President and CEO Austan Goolsbee will participate in a conversation on economic and monetary policy.
  • April 8, 4:00 am: Eurozone YoY PPI for February estimated -1.9% (previous -2.1%); Monthly estimate 0.5% (previous 0.7%)
  • April 8, 1:00 p.m.: FOMC minutes from March 17-18 meeting released.
  • April 9, 7:30 am: Monthly US Core PCE Price Index for February estimated 0.4% (previously 0.4%);
  • April 9, 7:30 am: US monthly personal income for February estimated 0.3% (previously 0.4%); Estimated monthly personal expense 0.5% (previous 0.4%)
  • April 9, 7:30 am: US Q4 GDP growth rate (final) estimated at 0.7% (previously 4.4%)
  • April 9, 7:30 am: US initial jobless claims for week ending April 4, approximately 200,000 (was 202,000)
  • April 9, 8:30 pm: China’s year-on-year CPI for March estimated at 1.2% (previously 1.3%); monthly (previously 1%)
  • April 9, 8:30 pm: China YoY PPI for March estimated 0.4% (previous -0.9%)
  • April 10, 7:30 am: Canada unemployment rate for March (previously 6.7%)
  • April 10, 7:30 am: US monthly CPI for March estimated at 0.9% (previously 0.3%); Core CPI estimated monthly 0.3% (previous 0.2%)
  • April 10, 7:30 am: US YoY CPI for March estimated at 3.4% (previously 2.4%); YoY estimated core CPI 2.7% (previous 2.5%)
  • April 10, 10:00 am: US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary April) est. 52.5 (previously 53.3)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

symbolic events

• Governance votes and calls
  • April 7: Kamino and xStocks will host an X Spaces session on tokenization.
  • Aave DAO is voting to adjust oracle settings, lower settlement thresholds, and modify interest rate models in its V2 markets to support its continued deprecation. Voting ends April 6.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a definition of success and a contingency plan for 2030. The proposal currently has voter support. Voting ends April 6.
  • Balancer DAO is voting on two linked proposals to restructure operations with a reduced team and budget, and to revamp tokenomics by stopping BAL issuances, discontinuing veBAL, directing all fees to the treasury, and offering a token buyback. Voting ends April 7.
  • CoW DAO will vote 85 votes to set its resolution rewards budget at 50% of the protocol’s revenue, dividing it between performance rewards and new consistency. The proposal has overwhelming support and ends on April 7.
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting to cut DFC compensation, saving ~$24k/year on FOX. Clarifies functions and requires annual renewals. Voting ends April 8.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on two proposals to modify its Audit Program with a flexible alignment framework and AI security scanning pilot, and to transfer 6,000 ETH and dormant stablecoins to the Treasury Management Wallet to generate yield. Voting ends April 9.
• Unlock
  • April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.
  • April 8: Stable (STABLE) to unlock 4.14% of its circulating value worth $23.97 million.
  • April 9: Apts SUITABLE$0.8610 to unlock 0.68% of its circulating supply worth $9.56 million.
• Token releases
  • April 9: OneFootball (OFC) token generation event will occur.

Conferences