- US intelligence says Iran’s leadership remains stable.
- The IRGC continues to dominate the economic and security sectors.
- Israel admits that regime collapse is not guaranteed.
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON: US intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership remains largely intact and is not at risk of collapsing anytime soon after nearly two weeks of relentless US and Israeli bombing, according to three sources familiar with the matter.
A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “a consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapsing and “retains control of the Iranian public,” said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss the US intelligence findings.
The latest report was completed in recent days, the source said.
Facing growing political pressure over rising oil costs, President Donald Trump has suggested he will end “soon” the largest U.S. military operation since 2003. But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.
Intelligence reports underscore the cohesion of Iran’s leadership despite the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, the first day of the US-Israeli strikes.
Israeli officials in closed discussions have also acknowledged that there is no certainty that the war will lead to the collapse of the government, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
The sources emphasized that the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics within Iran could change.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Changing goals
Since launching their war, the United States and Israel have attacked a variety of Iranian targets, including air defenses, nuclear sites, and members of the senior leadership.
The Trump administration has given various reasons for the war. Announcing the start of the US operation, Trump urged the Iranians to “take control of their government,” but his top advisers have since denied that the goal was to overthrow Iran’s leadership.
In addition to Khamenei, the attacks have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls much of the economy.
Still, U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who took power after Khamenei’s death retain control of the country.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior leaders, declared Khamenei’s son Mojtaba the new supreme leader earlier this week.
Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the previous government to remain intact, a fourth source familiar with the matter said.
It is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would overthrow the government.
It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to protest safely in the streets, the source said.
The Trump administration has not ruled out sending US troops to Iran.
Intelligence Suggests Kurds Lack Firepower to Fight Iran
Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighboring Iraq consulted with the United States on how and whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country.
Such a raid could put pressure on the Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise up against the government.
Abdullah Mohtadi, leader of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a coalition of six Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview Wednesday that the parties are highly organized inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive support from the United States.
Mohtadi said he received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that units of the IRGC and other security forces had abandoned bases and barracks for fear of US and Israeli attacks.
“We have witnessed tangible signs of weakness in the Kurdish areas,” he said.
But recent U.S. intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.
Intelligence indicates the groups lack firepower and numbers, they said.
The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Iranian Kurdish groups have asked senior officials in Washington and U.S. lawmakers in recent days for the United States to provide them with weapons and armored vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.
But Trump said on Saturday that he had ruled out Iranian Kurdish groups entering Iran.
