- Despite recent growth, PC shipments will slow in 2025, Canalys predicts
- Trump’s proposed tariffs and Windows 11 upgrade costs to blame
- Import tariffs could increase PC prices by up to 46%
New research from Canalys has confirmed recent healthy growth in the US PC market, with shipments increasing 7% year-over-year to 17.9 million units in the third quarter of 2024; However, the outlook for the near future is not so positive.
The firm stated that the market recovery could slow in the coming months due to potential headwinds related to macroeconomic policies, as a result of the upcoming Trump presidency.
Other factors, such as weaker momentum in the Windows update cycle despite the outgoing operating system, Windows 10, losing support in October 2025, will also affect the market.
US PC market faces upcoming challenges
With quarterly growth continuing into the first quarter of 2025, Canalys predicts a market contraction in the second quarter, with growth in the third and fourth quarters barely in the single digits.
The forecast growth of 2% for 2025 as a whole will be significantly lower than the 6% expected for 2024. Last year’s figures have not yet been published.
Despite the slowdown in growth, the buyer split remains fairly consistent, with consumers accounting for about 37% of purchases and business customers taking 43-44% of the market. Government and education customers make up the remaining buyers.
Canalys analyst Greg Davis commented: “As the 2024 US presidential election draws to a close, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near term as “They have been for the last two years.”
The company’s statement cites recent research from the Consumer Technology Association, which suggests that proposed tariffs under Trump’s incoming leadership could increase laptop and tablet prices by up to 46%. Smartphones could also see a 26% price increase following proposed tariffs of 10-20% on imports from most countries and 60% on Chinese imports.
A struggling market and rising costs mark a significant shift from Canalys’ September 2024 expectations, when the company stated that US PC shipments could grow 6% in both 2024 and 2025.
