The latest Bitcoin sell-off is being driven by mid-cycle holders and not long-term whales, according to VanEck’s “Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck” report.
The asset management firm said wallets whose coins last moved in the last five years account for the bulk of recent sales, while older cohorts have remained “remarkably stable” despite weakening sentiment. VanEck also noted that coins that last moved more than five years ago continue to age in the cohort, adding approximately +278,000 BTC in the last two years, which the firm says indicates long-term conviction remains intact.
The report comes as Bitcoin trades near multi-month lows. BTC was recently hovering around $86,696 as of 9:15 pm UTC on Thursday, down 3.2% over the past 24 hours and 31.2% below its Oct. 6 all-time high of $126,080, according to CoinGecko. Analysts have linked the broader decline to forced liquidations, the distribution of long-term holders and increased volatility in offshore derivatives markets.
“There have been several catalysts, but it appears the biggest drivers are long-term selling by ‘OGs’, an uncertain economic climate and a massive deleveraging event on October 10,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, told Euronews. He said older holders with large balances “have been selling for several weeks,” creating “an avalanche of supply hitting the market.”
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, told Euronews that bitcoin’s swings also reflect aggressive trading behavior on offshore platforms. He said professional trading firms implement backlog strategies “labeled as spoofing or laddering,” adding that such firms “only care about that.” [the price] “It moves quickly.”
VanEck said the 3- to 5-year age range has fallen 32% over the past two years as those coins changed direction, a trend the company links to churn among cycle traders rather than capitulation by decade-old holders.
The report also highlighted a reset in speculative positioning: open interest in bitcoin perpetuals has fallen 20% in BTC terms and 32% in USD terms since October 9, raising funding rates to levels similar to past periods. Smaller wallets with between 100 and 1000 BTC have increased their balances by 9% in six months and 23% in a year as the largest cohort of whales trimmed positions.
VanEck said the combination of long-term holder stability, cohort rotation, and futures market capitulation leaves Bitcoin in a “reset” state that has historically preceded tactical bounces.
