Coinbase’s (COIN) third-quarter earnings report, which beat expectations, drew a variety of responses from Wall Street analysts, highlighting stark differences in expectations for the crypto exchange’s long-term growth and its ability to manage costs.
The company posted $1.05 billion in trading revenue and $801 million in adjusted Ebitda, both above consensus estimates. Analysts across the board agreed that derivatives trading, subscription services and the integration of Deribit helped drive the pace. From there opinions diverged.
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish acknowledged Coinbase’s performance but noted rising costs and shrinking margins heading into the fourth quarter. It cited an increase in operating expenses, driven by hires and acquisitions such as fundraising platform Echo, as key challenges. Budish lowered his price target to $357 from $361, citing lower earnings estimates for 2026.
Clear Street’s Owen Lau was more optimistic. It raised its target to $415 from $405, arguing that Coinbase is well positioned to benefit from a growing role in cross-border B2B payments. Lau pointed to Coinbase’s partnerships with Citi and Shopify, and said stablecoin-based merchant payments could take market share from traditional avenues. He also pointed to regulatory progress, such as the possible passage of the Clarity Act in the US next year, as a possible catalyst for the “Altcoin Summer.”
Benchmark’s Mark Palmer echoed the optimism and maintained a buy rating and $421 target. He framed the gains as a return to form, with Coinbase demonstrating operating leverage as crypto markets heated up. He highlighted the importance of subscription revenue, which grew 14% quarter over quarter, and the company’s role in broader institutional adoption of digital assets.
Citi also struck an optimistic tone, highlighting momentum in the exchange’s expanding business lines.
Analysts led by Peter Christiansen said they were encouraged by the company’s progress in signing new “onchain-as-a-service” partnerships, including with Samsung and several banks. The report adds that the company’s vision of “Everything Exchange” is starting to take shape, with options trading now active and futures volumes set to increase.
Pending digital asset reforms could improve market access, and the bank noted they could also unleash “a wave of pent-up innovation.” Analysts reaffirmed their buy rating on the stock and their $505 price target.
However, Compass Point’s Ed Engel warned that cost growth outpacing revenue puts Coinbase in a vulnerable position should crypto markets cool. It cut its 2026 Ebitda estimate and lowered its target to $266 from $277. Engel was skeptical that stablecoin growth and staking revenue would continue, especially if interest rates fall and retail enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies wanes.
Broker Bernstein noted that the results fell short of his high expectations, but said the company is on the “path of generational business development and its destiny is not simply driven by cryptocurrency price action.”
The launch of the Base app to millions of users, along with the launch of a Base token, could mark a “Crypto Venmo” moment for Coinbase, according to the report, signaling a major step toward widespread adoption. The brokerage reiterated its Outperform rating on the stock and $510 price target.
The biggest point of agreement was Coinbase’s growing presence in derivatives and stablecoin-related products. But even that came with caveats, as analysts noted declining commission rates and growing competition from Circle Internet (CRCL), which is trying to attract more volume of its USDC stablecoin to its own platform.
Ultimately, Coinbase’s short-term success is clear. But as crypto markets remain volatile and the company spends heavily on growth, the long-term prospects depend on whether new revenue streams, such as B2B payments and tokenized assets, can scale quickly enough to justify the investment.
Price targets now range between $266 and $510, a gap that reflects both the opportunity Coinbase is pursuing and the risks if it stumbles.
