By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Eric Trump was right when he reportedly said on September 27 that the fourth quarter would be incredible for cryptocurrency holders. So far it has been… but not in the way the bulls would have expected.
bitcoin has plummeted 28% to $82,000, with a drop of more than 5% in the last 24 hours alone. The total crypto market capitalization has dropped by 27% to $2.8 trillion.
Regular Daybook readers know the catalysts well: the Oct. 10 automatic deleveraging event that shook market sentiment, leaving arbitrageurs as marginal sellers in the spot market; the depletion of the digital asset treasury narrative; a strengthened dollar; Dimming expectations of US interest rate cuts
On top of that, bitcoin and ether spot ETFs are seeing record redemptions. These investment vehicles are seen as substitutes for institutional capital, which we were told tends to be rigid and take long-term positions.
If that’s the case, then these record outflows make me wonder: are these refunds and price drops a sign that institutions are preparing for further macroeconomic stress? After all, bitcoin and the crypto market in general are fundamentally liquidity-driven games with risk-in and risk-out risk. Note that BTC peaked at least a month before stocks in late 2021.
There are several issues that could intensify, such as Japan’s fiscal challenges, the deterioration of private credit in the United States and a possible huge rally in the dollar, all topics that we have mentioned recently.
These can evolve into a major crisis. For now, the cryptocurrency market decline continues to subside, with the BTC price chart showing the next major support directly around $75,000 along with growing investor interest in deep out-of-the-money put options tied to the BlackRock Spot ETF. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- November 21, 8:45 am: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip N. Jefferson’s speech on “Financial Stability.” Watch live.
- Nov 21, 9:45 am: S&P Global US November PMI Manufacturing Est. 52, Services Est. 54.6, Composite Estimate. 54.5.
- November 21, 10 am: Final November data from the University of Michigan. Estimated consumer sentiment index. 50.5, estimated 5-year inflation expectations. 3.6%.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- November 21: Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), pre-market.
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock
- Token releases
- Capybobo (PYBOBO) will be listed on Gate under the PYBOBO/USDT pair.
- to be listed on Bitmart with the SAPIEN/USDT pair.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 4.5% as of 4 pm ET Thursday to $91,891.98 (24 hours: -9.71%)
- ETH is down 5.42% to $2,720.57 (24 hours: -10.18%)
- CoinDesk 20 was down -6.38% at 2,950.83 (24 hours: -10.42%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 7 Basis Points to 2.93%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0072% (7.446% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 100.22
- Gold futures fall 0.70% to $4,031.70
- Silver futures down 4.14% to $48.22
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 2.40% at 48,625.88
- Hang Seng closed down 2.38% at 25,220.02
- The FTSE is down 0.49% at 9,480.78
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 1.26% to 5,499.73
- DJIA closed down 0.84% at 45,752.26
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.56% at 6,538.76
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.15% at 22,078.05
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.23% at 29,906.55
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 1.32% in 3,029.45
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 4.3 bp to 4.061%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.08% to 6,552.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.34% at 24,048.75
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index rises 0.26% to 45,944.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.83% (-0.14%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03261 (-0.3%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,048 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $34.10
- Total fees: 3.17 BTC / $285,386
- CME Futures Open Interest: 134,245 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 20.5 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 5.55%
Technical analysis
- With a drop to almost $81,000, BTC has retraced 80% of the rally from $75,000 in April to over $126,000 in early October.
- Prices have fallen below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.
- The next support is seen around $75,000.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $238.16 (-7.44%), -2.71% to $231.71 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $66.93 (-4%), -2.66% to $65.15
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.03 (-6.72%), -5.58% at $22.69
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.50 (0.3%), -3.01% at $35.40
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.24 (-7.75%), -4% at $9.83
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.78 (-4.27%), -4.85% at $12.16
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.16 (-1.49%), -2.37% at $14.80
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.78 (-4.31%), -3.99% at $9.39
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.76 (-4.06%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $14.19 (-2%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $177.13 (-5.02%), -5.41% at $167.55
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $18.47 (-6.39%)
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.30 (-5.78%), -5.38% at $8.80
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.47 (-8.18%), -3.24% at $2.39
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.70 (-4.49%), -4.12% at $1.63
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$903.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: $57.38 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.32 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$261.6 million
- Accumulated net flows: 12.6 billion dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~6.24 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
- BTC falls towards around $80,000 as market structure weakens towards year-end (CoinDesk) – Market maker FlowDesk said coins from long-dormant wallets are flooding exchanges and overwhelming bids, leading to defensive positioning, tight liquidity, and a rotation toward lower-priced put options for downside protection.
- Exactly one year after the strategy’s all-time high, the Bitcoin-linked decline intensifies (CoinDesk): the strategy has fallen 68% from its all-time high of $543 last November, while bitcoin has fallen from October’s all-time high of over $126,000 to just $81,000.
- Falling yen is bullish for BTC and risk assets. Or is it like that? (CoinDesk): Rising yields in Japan are no longer driving up the yen, as growing debt fears and monetary policy restrictions undermine investor confidence and cloud its usefulness as a signal for crypto markets.
- Bitcoin Headed for Worst Month Since Crypto Crash of 2022 (Bloomberg) – Bitcoin has lost about 23% this month, analysts say, as selloffs, spot ETF outflows and weak institutional demand deepen a correction in what could become the worst month since June 2022.
- Japan approves $135 billion stimulus injection to help households and economy (The Wall Street Journal): The liquidity injection signals a shift toward aggressive fiscal policy, raising growth expectations but stoking fears of debt stress, further depreciation of the yen and less monetary policy flexibility.
