The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the price gap between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average, has fallen to a negative divergence of -0.15%, the widest since the first quarter of this year.
A negative index reading means bitcoin is trading cheaper on Coinbase, indicating weakness in US demand, selling pressure and declining institutional appetite. This trend began after the October 10 cryptocurrency settlement event and has persisted throughout November.
The measure is produced as bitcoin. is on track for its worst week since early March, having fallen more than 11% and briefly dipped below $81,000 before stabilizing around $84,000. November has also delivered big losses, with bitcoin currently falling 23%, marking its worst monthly performance since June 2022, when it fell 38%.
Capitulation event?
This shift in market sentiment is also visible in US spot bitcoin ETFs, which have seen persistent outflows throughout most of November.
Read more: Bitcoin ETFs have lost a record $3.79 billion in November
However, on Friday it broke that streak with $238.4 million in admissions, the most since Nov. 11, according to data from Farside. It was also a day of record volume, with ETFs collectively trading $11.5 billion, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $8 billion of that total.
Balchunas also noted that IBIT posted a record week for put options volume, indicating that “this is something that can help people stay the course: they can always buy some puts as a hedge while staying in the long run.”
Given bitcoin’s 36% drop from its October all-time high, Friday may represent a high-volume capitulation event, often seen at local price lows. While not guaranteed, events may be signaling BTC’s possible attempt to stabilize in the low $80,000 range.
Glassnode data shows more than $4 billion in losses realized in bitcoin on Friday, the highest level since March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, another possible capitulation data.
Read more: Bitcoin sell-off led by mid-cycle wallets, while long-term whales hold firm: VanEck
