The United States government closed last Wednesday, to the presy of any federal employee considered non -essential and forced the rest to work without pay (although they should receive a setback when the government is formally financed again). If the government reopens in the coming weeks, it should not have too much effect on the formulation of Criptographic DC policies. However, the more the closure stretches, the more delayed the cryptographic efforts will be.
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The narrative
The government closed on Wednesday, and at least at the time of publication, Democrats and Republicans do not seem to be close to an agreement to reopen it.
Why does it matter
As discussed in the bulletin last week, the immediate effects of the closure are quite simple: the market structure legislation will probably be delayed, the regulation of federal agencies will probably be delayed and the new credit funds will be delayed in the exchange of cryptocurrencies will not launch so many expected in the coming days.
If the closure is just a few days, or potentially up to two weeks, these efforts should be resumed enough without problems. If the closure goes beyond that, the image becomes much more confusing.
Break down
The longest closing of the United States government in history took place between December 2018 and January 2019, during the first mandate of President Donald Trump. At that time, the Democrats controlled the House of Representatives, while the Republicans controlled the Senate. This last closure has only a few days of yesteryear, and it could last only a few days or it can extend more.
Perhaps the most immediate and tangible effect of government closure in cryptography problems is in the funds quoted in the stock market. The stock exchange and values ​​commission was expected to allow the ETF to track the prices of assets like Solana and launch last week. While there was any movement last week and Monday, the clock was exhausted before it could be passed through the entire final documentation, and the emitters have not yet been able to launch.
The SEC could also finish a couple of letters without action before closing. Other agencies, such as IRS, were able to publish a provisional guide similarly before closing.
Ron Hammond, chief of policy and defense at Wintermute, told Coindesk that “it cannot be underestimated how busy the cryptographic policy developments have been.”
With the closure, the policy formulators are in limbo around this type of regulatory actions, he said.
In the Legislative Front, an individual familiar with the dynamics in Washington, DC, said they do not expect the timeline for market structure legislation to change a lot if the closure ends in the next two weeks or so. While legislators seek to celebrate a possible marking, an audience in which legislators discuss the bills before voting potentially to advance the complete Senate (or the Chamber), before October 20, 2025, this seems unlikely, regardless of when the closure ends, since they are still working in the text of the bill.
Another person familiar with these dynamics said that an additional complication factor for legislators and their employees is the fact that the regulatory agencies they could consult are currently licensed, so legislators who write the bill of the market structure will not be able to receive comments or answers to any questions they may have for these federal regulators.
Hammond said December “is still feasible” to move legislation through Congress at this time.
“The more this closure crawls, the more partisan bitterness it filters in the necessary bipartisan discourse on important issues such as the structure of the cryptography market,” Hammond said. “Even so, this closing drama is not affecting our calculation in the probabilities of the market structure legislation to approve to be more likely than before the 2026 elections increase.”
Hammond said I was looking to see if a margin in the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees for thanksgiving.
This week
- There are no audiences or events held by legislators this week around cryptography.
If you have thoughts or questions about what I should discuss next week or any other comments you want to share, do not hesitate to send me an email to [email protected] or find myself at bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.
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Look, next week!
