Given the vocal and demonstrated support of the Trump administration to cryptography, some investors wonder if the gold days such as the world’s favorite coverage asset are numbered.
André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise Asset Management, suggests that the election is not so simple. In a publication about X Saturday, he offered a general rule: gold still works better, since protection against stock market losses, while Bitcoin acts more and more as a counterweight to the stress of the bond market.
Gold: Equity coverage of choice
The reasoning begins with the story. When the shares are sold, investors often rush in gold. Market data decades support this. Gold’s long -term correlation with S&P 500 has moved near zero, and during market stress often decreases negative.
For example, in the 2022 bear market, gold prices increased approximately 5% even when the S&P 500 fell almost 20%. That pattern illustrates why gold is still considered the classic “safe refuge.”
Bitcoin: a bond market counterweight
Bitcoin, on the contrary, has often fought during the panic of equity. In 2022, it collapsed more than 60% along with technological actions. But its relationship with US treasures. UU. It has been more intriguing.
Several studies point out that Bitcoin has demonstrated a low or even slightly negative correlation with government bonds. That means that when bond prices sink and yields increase, as they did in 2023 during fears on debt and deficits in the United States, Bitcoin has sometimes remained better than gold.
Dragosch Takeway: Investors do not need to choose one on the other. They touch different papers. Gold is still the best coverage when stocks staggered, while Bitcoin can help wallets when bond markets are under pressure from growing rates or tax worries.
How the rule is maintained in 2025
The division has been clear this year. As of August 31, gold increased more than 30% in the year in which it will be carried out, according to data from the World Gold Council. That increase reflects the demand renewed during the episodes of volatility of equity linked to tariffs, the deceleration of growth and political risk.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has won around 16.46% this year, based on Coindesk data, solid performance taking into account that the United States treasure yields have fallen around 7.33%, according to Marketwatch data.
S&P 500, compared to approximately 10% in 2025, according to CNBC data.
Divergent yield underlines Dragosch’s heuristics: Gold has benefited most capital nerves, while Bitcoin has maintained its signature as bond markets wobble under the weight of higher yields and large government loans.
Not only the opinion: the data support it
This is not just Dragosch’s personal vision. A research report at the beginning of this year indicated that gold remains a reliable coverage against stock market recessions, while Bitcoin has tended to provide stronger yields during recoveries and shows a lower correlation with the United States Treasury bonds. The report concluded that having both assets can improve diversification and optimize yields adjusted by risk.
Warnings
Even so, correlations are not static. Bitcoin’s ties with the shares have been strengthened in 2025 thanks to large entries to ETF Spot, which have brought billions of institutional investors.
The huge net entries in the Bitcoin Spot ETFs make BTC trade more as a conventional risk asset, reducing its “purity” as bond coverage.
Short -term shocks can also stir the image. Regulatory surprises, liquidity squeezes or macro shocks can move gold and bitcoin in the same direction, which limits its usefulness as hedges. Dragosch’s jargon rule, in other words, is just that: a heuristic, not a guarantee.
The final result
Trump’s Pro-Crypto posture raises a provocative question: Is it time to abandon gold completely in favor of Bitcoin? Dragosch’s response, compatible with years of data, is no. Gold still works better when stocks fall, while Bitcoin can offer refuge when bonds are under pressure. For investors, the lesson is not abandoning an asset for the other, but to recognize that they cover different risks, and use both can be the smartest game.
