What we know so far

The capital is abuzz with political frenzy as the much-debated 27th Constitutional Amendment is about to be introduced in the Senate this Friday.

As the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) prepares to take up the issue tomorrow during its executive committee meeting scheduled for tomorrow, two questions seem to dominate all circles: what will the final draft of the Amendment contain and is it realistic to achieve its passage, given the fragile coalition underpinning the current parliamentary structure?

Deliberations on the 27th Amendment began shortly after the 26th^th The Constitutional Amendment was passed in October 2024. However, until now, no one could say with certainty what it would entail. On Monday, PPP president Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari gave the first indication of what a post on X will entail.

According to Bilawal’s tweet, the 27th Amendment aims to further reform the judiciary, building on the changes brought in the 26th Amendment. It proposes the establishment of federal constitutional courts in the provinces, the restoration of executive magistrates and the transfer of powers to allow judges to move between jurisdictions.

Lawyer Mirza Moiz Baig said The express PAkGazette that the proposed changes could undermine judicial independence. “The proposed amendments to Article 200, which remove the requirement to obtain a judge’s consent before transferring them, leave judges vulnerable to executive influence. Similarly, the restoration of executive magistrates would violate the separation of powers guaranteed by Article 175, eroding the independence of the judiciary.”

The Amendment also reportedly seeks to reduce provincial participation under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award and introduce changes in command and control structures related to the armed forces and appointments to the Electoral Commission. Among the key articles under discussion are articles 8, 199, 200, 234 and 243.

Article 243 refers to who commands the Pakistan Armed Forces. It dictates that “The Federal Government will have control and command of the Armed Forces.”

Read: Shehbaz led PML-N delegation approached PPP to support 27th Amendment: Bilawal

It continues by pointing out that “without prejudice to the generality of the previous provision, the Supreme Command of the Armed Forces will correspond to the President.” There is still a lot of ambiguity around the changes that are going to be made.

“Likewise, the creation of the Federal Constitutional Court, packed with unruffled judges, not only denigrates the Supreme Court and turns it into an appellate court, but also eviscerates the judiciary’s ability to enforce fundamental rights.”

Baig added: “The proposed 27th Amendment will do to the Federation what the 18th Amendment did to save it. Reviewing the provinces’ participation in the NFC and restricting provincial authority would dilute autonomy and undermine the federal character of the Constitution.”

The NFC Award has long been a source of tension between the Center and the provinces. Successive governments, including the PTI administration, have expressed dissatisfaction with the current distribution formula, under which 57.5% of the divisible federal fund resources go to the provinces, while the Center retains 42.5%.

Bilawal revealed that a delegation of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), led by Prime Minister Shehbaz, met President Asif Ali Zardari and himself to seek PPP’s support for passing the Amendment.

Much now depends on the outcome of the PPP Central Executive Committee meeting, which is expected to determine the party’s final position.

Yasser Kureshi, a researcher at the University of Oxford, said The express PAkGazette that despite the differences between the PML-N and the PPP on other points, “there is likely to be consensus among them on adopting the next steps to fragment and subordinate the judiciary through the 27th Amendment.”

He added that debates over judicial independence “are now largely irrelevant, especially since the 26th Amendment. What we have to ask is: how does the current regime seek to use and weaponize the judiciary and how does this amendment serve that purpose?”

“My understanding is that the role of the judiciary now is to act as a rubber stamp, providing legal cover to the executive branch’s efforts to organize and consolidate power,” Kureshi said.

the senate

Currently, 64 votes are needed in the Senate to pass any constitutional amendment. The PPP has 26 seats, making it the most dominant party in government seats, while the PML-N has 20.

Among the coalition partners, the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) has four members and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has three. Independent senators on the government side include Abdul Karim, Abdul Qadir, Mohsin Naqvi, Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, Asad Qasim and Faisal Vawda.

Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, addressing the Senate on Tuesday, assured lawmakers that all coalition partners were being consulted and that unity was expected in key votes.

Read more: Experts see balance of power reshaping

“We will move forward in accordance with the Constitution and the law, giving each member the right to debate and share their opinion,” he said. “Allies are kept informed and the draft will only be finalized after mutual agreement.”

Dar reaffirmed that it was the government’s constitutional duty to push for amendments transparently and with consensus. “There should be no confusion about who will introduce the bill,” he said. “It is the responsibility of the government and it will be done through parliament, not outside of it.”

In the opposition seats, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) remains the largest party, with 14 seats, and a newly elected senator is expected to be sworn in soon. The Awami National Party (ANP) has three seats, while Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) has seven. The Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM) and the Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC) have one senator each.

The PTI has unequivocally stated that it will not support the 27th Amendment. The Tehreek Tahafuz-e-Aeen-e-Pakistan (TTAP) has announced plans to block all attempts to secure its passage.

Former National Assembly Speaker Asad Qaiser criticized the PPP’s stance, saying: “There was once a PPP of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who laid the foundation of the Constitution, and another of Benazir Bhutto, who sacrificed her life for democracy. But today’s PPP is working hard to bury democracy.”

Also read: Government to introduce 27th amendment after full coalition consultation, says Dar

The final step

Once the draft amendments are finalized in the Senate, it will go to the National Assembly for voting.

The government alliance may have a two-thirds majority in Parliament, but without the support of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the passage of the 27th Constitutional Amendment remains uncertain. So what is the party’s current position in the National Assembly and how many votes are needed to pass the amendment?

The National Assembly is made up of 336 members, but with 10 seats currently vacant, the total number of sitting members rises to 326. To pass a constitutional amendment, the ruling coalition requires the “golden figure” of 224 votes.

Currently, the ruling alliance has the support of 237 members of the National Assembly. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) is the largest party in the coalition with 125 members, followed by Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) with 22, Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q) with 5, Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) with 4 and one member each from Pakistan Muslim League-Zia (PML-Z), the Balochistan Awami Party. (BAP) and the National Party. The government is also supported by four independent members.

The PPP, with 74 members, is the second largest party within the coalition. Your support has been crucial in helping the federal government achieve not only a simple majority but also a two-thirds majority when necessary.

On the other hand, the opposition benches only have 89 members in total. These include 75 independents, 10 members of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-Pakistan) and one member each of Sunni Ittehad Council (SIC), Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM), Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) and Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP).

We don’t know anything for sure about the 27th constitutional amendment yet; The project that will initially be presented in the Senate plenary session on November 7, in all likelihood, will not be the amendment that will finally come to a vote in the National Assembly. What we do know is that the burden of passing the 27th constitutional amendment falls on the shoulders of the PPP, without which the amendment may never materialize.

With additional reporting by Noor ul Huda Bhurgri