Bitcoin reached $74,000 and ran out of further buying pressure.
The largest cryptocurrency retreated to $70,987 in the Asian session on Friday, down 2.2% in the past 24 hours after Thursday’s surge took it to its highest level since early February. The rally from Saturday’s war-fueled low near $64,000 to Thursday’s high of $74,000 amounted to about 15% in five days, but the pullback since then has given back about a third of that move.
Chart watchers, such as FxPro chief analyst Alex Kuptsikevich, noted that the rejection coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and just below the 50-day moving average, two technical barriers that tend to attract sellers in bear market rallies.
Fibonacci retracement levels are derived from a mathematical sequence that traders use to identify where a bounce is likely to stop. The idea is that after a big drop, prices tend to recover a predictable percentage of that drop before resuming the trend. The 61.8% level is the one being watched most closely because it represents the point at which a rally has recouped about two-thirds of its losses, far enough away to look compelling, but historically where bear market rallies tend to die.
Meanwhile, the 50-day moving average is simply the average closing price for the last 50 days. It acts as a moving line of resistance during downtrends because it represents the price at which the average recent buyer breaks even, giving you an incentive to sell rather than hold. Bitcoin hits both at the same time, making $74,000 a technically crowded level.
Kuptsikevich noted that “bulls have yet to convince the community that the bear market is over,” adding that the magnitude of the move was driven by a brief squeeze from bears who “made their stops too close to the market price.”
Bitunix analysts noted a similar reading in the microstructure. The push to $74,000 triggered concentrated short liquidations, while long leverage liquidation pools are around $70,000. Secondary liquidity pools are close to $64,000. That creates a defined range for the next move, with the floor and ceiling visible on the liquidation heatmap.
The weekly numbers still look strong for the major currencies. Bitcoin is up 5.4% in seven days. Ether gained 2.7% to $2,080. BNB added 3.1% to $648. Solana rose 2.1% to $88.39. The laggards were dogecoin, down 3.7% for the week, and XRP, essentially flat with a 0.2% drop.
However, the macro outlook for the weekend is complicated.
Asia’s benchmark stock index has fallen 6.4% since the Iran war broke out, and the MSCI regional gauge is heading for its worst week since March 2020. The dollar is on track for its best week since November 2024. Oil is posting its biggest weekly gain since 2022. Those are not the conditions that typically support a cryptocurrency rally.
Friday brought tentative relief. Asian stocks erased early losses as the dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell on reports that the United States was weighing options to address rising energy costs.
But the war is not over. The Senate failed to block Trump’s continued military actions against Iran, leaving the costs of the conflict and the disruption of energy supplies as open variables. Defense Secretary Hegseth has said the operations could last three to eight weeks. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively disturbed.
The $70,000 level that was resistance for a month is now the first test of support. Keeping it would suggest the breakup is real. Losing it puts the $64,000 floor back into play.
