bitcoin The relief rally due to the loss of oil profits lasted about 36 hours.
Bitcoin fell to $69,393 on Thursday morning, down 0.8% over the past 24 hours and down 4.3% for the week, after attacks on two oil tankers in Iraqi waters sent Brent crude back above $100 a barrel.
The move ended Wednesday’s optimism surrounding the record reserve release proposed by the IEA and once again pushed risk sentiment toward a pullback in Asian markets.
The chart tells the story of a market that can’t catch a break. Bitcoin touched $71,230 on Wednesday night before the tanker headlines appeared, losing nearly $2,000 in a matter of hours.
This is the third time in two weeks that bitcoin has surpassed $71,000 only to be brought down by an escalation in the Middle East conflict.
Brent rose as much as 10.5% on Thursday, boosted by a combination of attacks on oil tankers, the clearance of the Mina Al Fahal port in Oman, continuing hostilities across the Persian Gulf and growing doubts over whether the release of IEA stockpiles will be large enough to offset the supply disruption.
The MSCI Asia Pacific index fell 1.8% and energy was the only sector in the green. The session extended losses as it progressed, with no signs of stabilization.
The broader crypto market followed Bitcoin lower. Ether fell to $2,025, down 0.5% on the day and down 4.5% on the week. Solana fell 1.5% to $85 and is now down 5.7% in seven days, the worst performing major. XRP lost 0.8% to $1.37.
Dogecoin fell 0.8% to $0.092, shedding most of Tuesday’s Musk-driven gains. BNB remained stable at $642.
The pattern of the last two weeks has been consistent. Good headlines push bitcoin towards $71,000-$74,000. The bad headlines drag it back towards $66,000-68,000. The net movement over the period is close to zero, which is exactly what the on-chain data suggests.
Apparent demand remains deeply negative at -30,800 BTC in 30 days. The CryptoQuant Bearish Bullish Indicator is still in bearish territory while the supply loss continues to increase. Each bounce is sold by holders looking to exit.
Trump said earlier this week that the war would be resolved “very soon” and that military objectives were “pretty well completed.”
But the timeline remains unclear, Iran continues to attack targets across the region and the Strait of Hormuz is still disturbed. Mixed messages from Washington have left markets unable to confidently price the duration of the conflict.
The Federal Reserve meeting on March 17-18 is five days away, and oil’s return above $100 makes the case of stagflation harder to rule out and rate cuts even more distant.
