Bitcoin
The upward market has stagnated and how.
Despite an increase in spot ETF tickets, the Stablecoin market limits and positive regulatory developments in the US. UU., The leading coptocurrency by market value continues to operate without direction, fluctuating between $ 100,000 and $ 110,000.
They have been a record of 42 consecutive days of round trip operations above the $ 100 brand, and the question is: Who has been selling BTC and silently counteracting ETF tickets in the midst of growing concerns about the fiscal situation of the United States?
According to Alexander Blume, managing partner of the investment advisor registered in the SEC Two Prime, BTC faces a unique cross wind of the composition of the participants, since it transition from speculative buyers to long -term investors.
“In the midst of the recent geopolitical agitation, it makes sense that speculators and leverage merchants risk the table. At the same time, new long -term investors are buying the dip,” Blume told Coindesk. “It seems correct that we are currently in a balance of these groups.”
Blockchain data tracked by Glassnode show that wallets with a history of coins for less than a year have recently increased their gains. On Monday, these wallets represented 83% of the total profits made. In addition, wallets that have coins for six to 12 months only contributed $ 904 million to the sale pressure in the market, the second highest total of the whole year to date.
The sale of short -term holders follows an even more aggressive earnings operation by long -term holders in May and early this month. According to Glassnode, the gain made of wallets that have coins for more than 12 months reached a peak of $ 1.2 billion last week. Last week, this cohort realized only $ 324 million in profits.
“Long -term OG investors continue to sell to the constant demand driven by the ETF, effectively absorbing tickets and maintaining the price action under control. This dynamic has led to compression in volatility, but a break is inevitable,” said Markus Thielen, a 10X Research founder, in a note to customers on Thursday.
BTC miners discharge
Miners, or those produced by Bitcoin, have also been contributing to the sales pressure, according to the Intotheblock data source.
The balance held on mining wallets has decreased to approximately 1.91 million BTC of 1.94 million at the end of May, indicating that these entities discharged approximately 30,000 BTC in 20 days.
“Miners have to sell continuously, and they believe it or not, some long -term headlines continue to gradually sell as their USD liabilities administer. The key is the volume: did it sell or buy in high volume? It is noise and speculative flows that can reverse very quickly,” said Philippe Bekhazi, CEO of Crypto Platform Xbto, said Coindesk.
Keep in mind that the participation of miners in the total volume of the spot market is tiny and has reached the lowest since 2022.
Accumulation positions for the best alternatives
In general, the substantial accumulation of whales and small addresses observed during the initial execution of Bitcoin higher since the minimums of early April, about $ 75,000, has stagnated since prices exploded in six figures.
“Those same accumulation patterns began to weaken once BTC violated $ 100K. The reason why the price was probably due to the availability of the best alternatives.
Delta-neutral operations imply anchistration of perpetual futures and simultaneously buy the asset in the spot market when the futures are negotiated with a premium at the spot price. The non -directional arbitration strategy allows operators to capitalize on price differentials while mitigating the risks associated with price volatility.
Jimmy Yang, co -founder of Orbit Markets, said Bitcoin maturing in a more stable asset class means that it cannot necessarily generate huge yields. That has probably led some holders to deviate to other assets.
“While the directional ascent remains, investors can no longer wait 10 or 100x returns in a short period. As a result, we have seen some long -term holders begin to unintentionally disin a portion of their BTC holdings to diversify in other classes of assets, such as shares, gold and private placations, a movement that makes sense from a portfolio wing perspective,” he told COINDESK.
What follows?
According to Yang, the market may not offer much emotion in the short term, since the cryptocurrency continues to operate together with actions and a broader risk feeling.
“Both classes of assets are close near the historical maximums, and if the actions are broken, it is likely that the BTC will follow. With the fixation of summer calm, the market activity is expected to remain moderate in the short term,” Yang said.
Blume said the BTC market can cool off a bit, after having seen that prices increase from $ 75K to more than $ 100K in the first weeks of this quarter.
“It is also to keep in mind that Bitcoin recovered from 78K less than two months ago, so he would expect a cooling anyway. It is revealing that the falls in the price are quite superficial and are a signal of strength for the next advantage,” said Blume.
According to Thielen, the key levels to see are $ 102,000 in the inconvenience and $ 106,000 in the rise.
