Since mid -July, Bitcoin’s (BTC) The ascent has slowed over $ 120,000. Prices reached a new maximum of $ 124,157 on Thursday early, but since then they have retired to $ 123,000, without impulse.
This raises a question: who is winning Bitcoin and adding sale pressure to the market? According to observers, the answer is found in Blockchain data, which shows that old wallets have been liquidating their holdings.
“It can be linked to the concentrated sale pressure of the long -term holders who have recently accelerated their sale,” Gabriel Halm, a senior blockchain analyst of Feelora, told Coindesk.
“Historically, the sales phases of the long -term holders are defined cleanly within the Bitcoin cycle. This time, however, the accumulation during the recoil of Q2 has given way to the renewed sale, which suggests that the structure of the market may be changing.”
The BTC supply controlled by long -term holders or wallets with a possession history of possessing for 155 days or more has decreased by more than 300,000 BTC in four weeks, according to the Bitcoin magazine of the data source.
Several inactive, inactive wallets for more than a decade, have been active in the last four weeks, moving coins in the chain for the first time, possibly in earnings operations.
The Blockchain analysis analysis firm, Glassnode, declared last week that the profits of long -term holders continues, although at a slower pace than in July.
“Earning $ BTC for long -term holders (7D SMA) It has slowed in August after an execution of July consistently above $ 1b/day, one of the largest periods of obtaining registered profits, “said Glassnode in X.
Sam Gaer, Investment Director of the MONARQ ASSET MANAGEMENT FUND, declared that the supply of old wallets has been limited, but has been largely absorbed well, coinciding with the pattern seen last year when the state of Sajonia of Germany liquidated their holdings.
“BTC price levels have tended to consolidate around psychological levels (Think $ 100,000, $ 110,000, $ 120,000) and specifically around ATH levels. This same pattern was seen last month at the level of $ 110,000, since we played maximum of all time in area 112 and then we deviate several times, “Gaer said.
The persistent sale of the highest strike calls of the institutions could have influenced the speed of the rally. Usually, they do it to obtain additional performance in addition to the holder of the spot market. According to Gaer, call overwritten call has led to a volatility crisis. Implicit volatility, which represents the expected price turbulence for a specific period, is driven by the demand for options.
“The overwhelming activity of the calls of the long -term headlines continues in an apparently endless way, with a Vol Crush that remains BTC with weekend vols in adolescence, without knowing in my experience. I use the phrase ’40 is the new 60 ‘when referring to the BTC general [implied] Volatility Reprainization: This is a historical sign of a market maturation, “Gaer said.
What follows?
The path of the lowest resistance remains the other way around, thanks to the signs of strong demand tail by immersion and macroeconomic consumption.
“1.88 million addresses bought 1.3 million BTC at an average of $ 118,000, indicating a strong demand layer that has so far prevented a deeper setback,” Halm told Coindesk.
Speaking of macro, the market feels comfortable more and more with the idea that the new normal inflation in the world after Covid is well above the 2% objective of the Fed and expects the Central Bank to reduce the rates in September.
Steve Gregory, founder of Vtrader, awaits a renewed funding of funds in Bitcoin de Ether.
“We can see a rotation of return to Bitcoin and a rupture of the level of $ 120,000, since the volatility of 3 months of Bitcoin reaches its lowest since September 2023. In addition, 95% of ETH wallets now have profits, indicating that merchants can make a logical rotation back to BTC,” Gregory said.
