As bitcoin (BTC) teeters around the $90,000-$95,000 area, a drop of more than 10% from its all-time high reached just under four weeks ago, contrast is growing between traders, whose technical analysis tools show that the main Cryptocurrency may be about to suffer another drop, and long-term investors believe the bull run is not over yet.
This is according to David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, a company that provides asset management services to funds and high net worth individuals in the crypto space. The company counts Charles Hoskinson, the CEO of the company behind Cardano, as one of its clients.
“In 14 years of owning bitcoin, I have never seen a dichotomy like this,” Siemer told CoinDesk in an interview. “All traders are worried, nervous and guarded, completely neutral or worse. And long-term people are very optimistic.”
“There is a good chance we will reach $200,000. [per bitcoin] this year,” Siemer said. “Do I think we’ll see $1 million per coin in my lifetime? Sure. Not soon, you know, not during the next year. …The smart, most connected people I know are also very optimistic. “More things will happen in the next six months than most people realize.”
Top of the list of developments for the coming year is that numerous jurisdictions, including the US, Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and some European nations, are looking to take big steps towards cryptocurrencies. , according to Siemer. (Wave runs educational programs on cryptography for various branches of the US government, such as the Internal Revenue Service or the US Marshals Service, as well as other executive bodies around the world; in fact, practices government are the company’s fastest growing business).
These measures, whatever form they take, will likely have positive effects on some of the private sectors in these countries, Siemer said. “[Japan or Singapore]those are societies that really trust and depend on their governments. If your government says it’s okay, it’s actually really okay. “It’s different than America, where we think our guys are idiots.”
What is causing such sudden interest in the cryptocurrency industry? The tremendous success of US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), for example, is forcing financial institutions around the world to think about ways to compete. That means launching new exotic products, such as multi-token performance funds, to offset the liquidity absorbed by BlackRock’s IBIT.
“ETFs launched in the United States and absolutely devastated all bitcoin ETPs around the world,” Siemer said. “They all had these terrible products and charged 1.5%. “All those guys got crushed.” Regulators, for their part, will tend to be supportive, Siemer said. For example, the European Union could end up producing a friendlier version of the Crypto Asset Markets Regulation (MiCA).
The chances of seeing new strategic bitcoin reserves are also high, Siemer said. “Even if the United States does not make a reservation, at least several other countries probably will,” he added. Not that he’s pessimistic about the US Wave’s prospects, he said, he’s currently in talks with seven different states that are considering the question of creating a reservation, including Texas, Ohio and Wyoming.
What about the federal government? Siemer estimated the odds at slightly better than 50-50, thanks in part to the nearly $19 billion in bitcoin he already owns.
“That’s a decent start for a bitcoin reserve,” Siemer said. “The only thing they have to do is not sell it. “It’s much more palatable to the tax base than buying, you know, $10 billion worth of bitcoin.”
