Experts say the so-called hybrid system will further consolidate power in the new year
ISLAMABAD:
Pakistan enters 2026 with its biggest political question still unanswered: what will happen to PTI founder Imran Khan.
His supporters hoped for relief in 2025 when Donald Trump returned to the White House. Those hopes were short-lived, however, as Trump never mentioned Imran, much less put pressure on the government or the powers that be for his release.
Instead, analysts believe that 2025 was the year in which the current political administration, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, further consolidated its position. They maintain that the trend is likely to continue until 2026.
Ahmad Bilal Mehboob, president of PILDAT, sees Pakistan’s “hybrid system” becoming stronger in 2026. He told The Express PAkGazette that the hybrid model of governance has become more formalized and is expected to consolidate further over the next year.
“This trend, visible over the past year through changes in the judicial and political landscape, is unlikely to be temporary and points towards further consolidation of a security-focused governance model,” he added.
The government, backed by the establishment, introduced several constitutional amendments in 2025 that led to major structural changes in governance and centers of power.
Political analyst Zaigham Khan, on the other hand, described 2025 as a “lucky year” for the government, largely due to favorable international developments.
He said regional developments – particularly the actions of India under Modi and Israel under Netanyahu – made Pakistan increasingly important in terms of security, especially to the Arab world.
This shift, he said, positioned Pakistan as an online security provider and an emerging middle power.
“The key challenge for 2026 will be to convert these geostrategic advances into tangible economic benefits,” he said.
However, Haris Khalique, secretary-general of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan, warned that further concentration of power in 2026 could seriously undermine civil liberties.
“As we enter 2026, democratic backsliding continues, while good governance, the rule of law and the protection of fundamental rights remain under pressure.
“Nothing will change overnight, but the powers that be must realize that excessive internal control and suppression of dissent rarely benefits any state or society,” he told The Express PAkGazette.
Khalique noted that 44.7 percent of Pakistan’s population lives below the poverty line, while 88 percent earn less than the living wage.
He argued that security, governance and development policies require major restructuring, adding that territorial security cannot be achieved without ensuring human security.
Furthermore, he emphasized that meaningful political dialogue is essential. While those in power must initiate the process, the PTI must also demonstrate willingness to collaborate with other political forces.
Fate of the PTI founder
As for Imran Khan’s future, Zaigham does not expect any significant change in 2026 – or even in the next four or five years – unless there is a major change, either through external pressure or a strategic decision by the PTI to operate within the existing political framework. “Even then, quick relief seems unlikely,” he said.
Mehboob believes that the PTI leader’s future largely depends on his political choices.
“If he continues protests and confrontation, it is unlikely that an agreement will be reached. However, opting for dialogue could reduce the pressure on both him and his party.”
He added that the next general election, scheduled for 2029 or shortly before, would be the true test of Khan’s political future. “There is little indication of a major change before then.”
On the PTI’s political space, Mehboob noted that as long as Shehbaz Sharif’s government and the establishment remain aligned, the government is likely to continue consolidating its power.
The PTI’s confrontational strategy, he said, limits its prospects. Meanwhile, Shehbaz Sharif’s support for the hybrid model, along with his performance on foreign policy, economy, law and order and reforms, currently positions him as the strongest option.
Nawaz Sharif’s role
Although Nawaz Sharif still appears to be in charge of the PML-N, he kept a relatively low profile in 2025. Some observers believe that the three-time former prime minister has already discharged his political duties and is no longer central to national politics.
Zaigham disagrees and claims that Nawaz Sharif will still be politically relevant in 2026. He maintained that Nawaz remains the central figure within the PML-N, and that the party’s key decisions are taken under his leadership.
Although he is not seeking public office, Zaigham said Nawaz Sharif is focused on safeguarding the party’s legacy and grooming Maryam Nawaz for leadership. It remains a critical question whether Maryam will be able to fully assume her role and regain the public’s trust.
Mehboob thinks Nawaz Sharif is acting cautiously. “For now, he appears cautious and avoids any measures that could disrupt the process or destabilize the government of his brother Shehbaz Sharif.” He added that Nawaz Sharif could re-enter active politics when he feels the time is right.
As Pakistan finds itself at a crossroads marked by political uncertainty and evolving regional dynamics, analysts agree that the country’s future depends on the willingness of all stakeholders to engage in genuine dialogue, implement meaningful reforms and balance security concerns with the rights and well-being of citizens.
