Bitcoin increased to $ 109,343 on July 9, 0.8% more than the previous 24 hours, according to the technical analysis model of Cindensk Research.
In a real social position at 10:00 am et, Trump declared that the Federal Funds rate of the United States is “at least 3 points too high”, referring to a basic point of 300 (3%) cut. He argued that delaying such a movement imposes an annual load of $ 360 billion in refinancing costs. In 30 minutes, BTC began to increase constantly as merchants seemed a price on the short -term implications of such a dramatic policy change, including the renewed liquidity potential and the feeling of risk.
In a complete thread on X, Macro analysts of Kobeissi’s letter provided a detailed breakdown of Trump’s claim. According to their analysis, the total interest payments of the US have already reached $ 1.2 billion in the last 12 months, equivalent to $ 3.3 billion per day.
They pointed out that while Trump mathematics assume $ 360 billion in savings per percentage point at $ 36 billion in national debt, only around $ 29 billion are maintained publicly and would be affected by rates changes. Under more realistic assumptions, they estimate that a complete 300 PB cut gradually could reduce interest spending by approximately $ 174 billion in the first year, for a total of $ 2.5 billion for five years if 20% of the debt is refined annually.
Despite these possible savings, the report warned that the widest economic consequences of a 3% cut would be historical. No Fed rates cut in modern history has exceeded 100 basic points, even during the 2008 crisis or the emergency movement of March 2020. The implementation of a reduction of 300 BPS out of a recession, in an economy that grows to 3.8% per year, would not be preceding.
Kobeissi’s letter warned that such a measure would probably revive inflation above 5%, triggered a strong drop in the US dollar, potentially exceeding 10%, and causes housing prices to increase due to a strong decrease in mortgage rates. Assets markets would probably join in the short term, with gold planned to reach $ 5,000, oil above $ 80 per barrel and the S&P 500 infringe 7,000. However, they emphasized that the long -term consequences would be destabilizing without important reductions in the expenditure of the United States government.
For Bitcoin, the implications are clear: a sudden fall in interest rates would be seen as a monetary stimulus, probably accelerating capital tickets in hard assets and alternative value stores such as BTC. While analysts continue to discuss the probability of such cuts, the immediate market reaction suggests that investors are positioning upward risk.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
- The BTC price moved sharply within 30 minutes after Trump’s social position at 10:00 am et.
- The consolidation persisted earlier in the day, but the purchase of the volume increased significantly after the comments of the Trump rate.
- Proven resistance of prices about $ 109,761, with higher minimums that are formed above $ 108,500, indicating an upward structure.
- Bollinger bands were compressed to their most tight levels in this cycle, historically a pending breakdown.
- The institutional accumulation remains visible through volume groups near support areas around $ 108,500– $ 108,600.
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