“This week we have seen some big blocks in higher BTC call spreads,” Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, told CoinDesk.
Options flow of this size and repetition often reflects institutional positioning rather than retail activity, given the capital required and the precision of strike selection.
The moment is notable for two reasons. First, it suggests confidence in bitcoin’s recent rebound to $64,000 from below $58,000 earlier this month. More importantly, the deal targets a July 31 deal, two days after the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision. The call spread flow suggests that at least some big traders hope the meeting will serve as a catalyst for a move towards $72,000.
Fed funds futures currently point to a hold on the July meeting, with most observers putting the likelihood of the central bank keeping its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in the 75%-80% range. The remaining probabilities are divided between a rate hike and, to a lesser extent, a cut.
Fears of a rate hike have eased following June inflation data, which showed a sharp slowdown in price pressures at both consumer and producer levels. Much of the relief is due to a sharp drop in oil prices during the month, linked to a ceasefire between the United States and Iran; Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained stable.
