Mass floods in Pakistan have reached both rural and industrial centers for the first time in decades, causing billions of dollars in damage while food supplies, exports and fragile economic recovery strive.
The government had been optimistic around 2026, with a growth of 4.2% to the back of a rebound in agriculture and manufacturing after the economy stabilized under a rescue of international monetary funds of $ 7 billion.
On the other hand, the rains of the monsoon registered since the end of June, amplified by the launches of the Indian dam, have submerged large extensions of Punjab and Sindh, the two most populated and economically vital provinces.
Although the waters have not yet retreated in many districts, officials and analysts warn that the blow could be deeper than in 2022, when a third of the country lay underwater, due to dual clashes for agriculture and manufacture.
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In the plains, satellite images have tracked the scale. A report by the Geoglam agricultural monitoring initiative estimates at least 220,000 hectares of flooded rice fields between August 1 and September 16.
In Punjab, the rice, cotton and corn engine of Pakistan, 1.8 million acres of cultivation lands have been flooded, according to the Provincial Agency for Disaster Management.
“About 50% of rice, 60% of cotton and corn crops have been damaged,” said Khalid Bath, president of the Pakistan Farmers Association. He said the losses could exceed 2.5 million acres, with a value of up to one billion rupees ($ 3.53 billion).
“This is different from everything we have seen in recent decades,” said Iqrar Ahmad Khan, former vice chancellor of the Faisalabad University of Agriculture.
He estimates that at least one tenth of the country’s crops are destroyed, with losses of vegetables that exceed 90% in some districts.
The moment is dangerous: Pakistan is about to sow wheat, the harvest that provides almost half of the country’s caloric intake. National reserves remain comfortable after a strong harvest of 2024, according to the crop monitor, but the planting window is at risk in the still slippery fields with silt and mud.
“Food insecurity is approaching, not only the highest prices,” Khan warned.
Minimization risks
The planning minister, Ahsan IQBAL, acknowledged that floods “would delay” GDP growth and said a clearer damage account would be ready in approximately two weeks.
The Central Bank of Pakistan said that the flood would cause a “temporary but significant supply shock” and that it put the growth near the lower end of its range of 3.25–4.25%.
He argued that the shock would be less severe than the $ 30 billion disaster in 2022, with stronger currency reserves and lower interest rates that offer some resistance.
Read more: Floods to famine: how 2025 could trigger the economic crisis
But wheat prices, sugar, onions and tomatoes have jumped, pushing a price index sensitive to a maximum of 26 months.
The IMF resident representative, Mahir Binici, said that an upcoming review of the installation of extended funds will evaluate whether the 2026 fiscal year budget and emergency provisions can meet the needs of the nation. Iqbal asked the background to “help us mitigate the damage.”
Some economists say that policy formulators are minimizing risks.
“Floods will increase the current account deficit by $ 7 billion. They are worse than previous floods,” said former finance minister Hafeez Pasha.
Counting losses
In industrial cities such as Sialkot, a center for textiles, sporting articles and surgical equipment that supports Pakistan’s exports, they manage several workshops.
The blow to agriculture is also a blow to manufacturers. Industrialists say that cotton deficits will be extended in the textile sector, the main assignment of currencies in the country, while rice exporters warn that Pakistan runs the risk of losing competitiveness to India as prices increase.
“We had 400 cotton acres, but only 90 left,” said farmer Rab Nawaz, near the historic city of fine.
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At least 1,006 people have been killed since June 26, said the National Disaster Management Authority, while more than 2.5 million people have been evacuated in Punjab and Sindh.
In the provincial capital Lahore, the houses and the small businesses were destroyed. Mohammad Arif, a 50 -year -old Rickshaw driver and a father of five children, said he moved his vehicle to a higher land when his house was flooded.
“We have been on the roads for three days,” he said.
