The record-long US government shutdown appears to be in its final stretch, with prediction markets indicating overwhelming confidence that Congress will approve a deal within days.
At Polymarket, traders now assign a 96% chance that the government will reopen between November 12 and 15, aligning with the expected House vote on the Senate’s bipartisan funding bill.
In Kalshi, contracts linked to the length of the lockdown have seen a similar boost, with traders forecasting an end within the next 72 hours as confidence rose following the 60-40 vote in the Senate to fund the government until January 30.
The rise in odds came after a decisive shift in Washington over the weekend.
Seven Senate Democrats broke ranks to join Republicans in promoting a bill that reverses massive federal layoffs, restores back pay and food assistance, and keeps federal agencies running, but leaves unresolved a politically explosive issue: expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which help lower monthly insurance premiums for millions.
December vote on subsidies
Even some of Trump’s allies are responding. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene accused party leaders of having “no plan” to address the potential doubling of premiums if the subsidies expire, while a bloc of imperiled House Republicans has urged Speaker Mike Johnson to act before the end of the year. Johnson has not yet committed to voting on ACA relief, although he has pledged to conduct “a deliberative process” after the government reopens.
A Senate vote in December on the subsidies is part of the closing deal, but its approval remains uncertain.
If markets’ predictions are correct, the government could reopen on November 14, once the House passes the funding bill and Trump signs it. But while Kalshi and Polymarket traders make profits at the end of the lockdown, both sides are still betting on a much more difficult question: who is to blame for it.
Midterm bets
And if next year’s midterm election results are the blame game, prediction markets are already keeping score.
On Polymarket, traders give Republicans a 44% chance of keeping the Senate and losing the House, a split outcome that means voters can punish both parties for Washington’s dysfunction.
The odds of a Democratic victory and a Republican victory are tied at about 27% each, suggesting that neither side has managed to convert the shutdown into political capital.
