Good morning Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
With just two weeks left in the year and many offices in Hong Kong operating with minimal staff following Friday’s Asian session as the Christmas holidays begin, crypto markets are shifting from momentum to scoring. One of the harshest year-end verdicts comes from Polymarket, where traders now assign just a 2% chance of bitcoin ETFs surpassing last year’s record entry in 2025.
The bet is based on a simple arithmetic problem. Bitcoin ETFs generated $33.6 billion in net inflows during 2024. This year’s figure, as of December 15, US time, is approaching $22.5 billion, according to SoSoValue, leaving a gap of about $11 billion with only days of meaningful trading remaining.
However, the last week has shown ETF inflows returning even as prices softened and altcoins lagged, suggesting that while the $33.6 billion target may be out of reach, the structural role of ETFs in absorbing risk is still strengthening as the year ends.
Glassnode data shows that US spot bitcoin ETF flows are returning to positive territory even as prices retreated from $94,000, where they were trading yesterday, and spot market conditions weakened, with net inflows rebounding to around $290 million in the week after earlier outflows.
At the same time, Glassnode writes that ETF trading volumes declined, suggesting less speculative rotation and more allocation-driven positioning. That pattern helps explain why bitcoin has held up better than the CoinDesk 20, a broad index, with ETFs increasingly acting as a stabilizing channel when risk comes from higher-beta assets rather than as a vehicle purely for chasing upside.
The $11 billion difference from last year’s record $33.6 billion reflects how the ETF story has changed, not that it has stagnated.
Unlike the launch year of 2024, which was driven by pent-up demand and one-time allocations, 2025 has been marked by churn, fee migration, and volatility-driven rebalancing.
The arithmetic may already be worked out, but beating a benchmark before the end of the year isn’t that important. It’s all about the use case: ETFs no longer amplify cryptocurrency prices, as they did when they launched in 2024.
Instead, they increasingly act as a stabilizing layer in the market, absorbing sell orders during pullbacks rather than amplifying price swings. That’s the sign of a mature market infrastructure.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin has spent the past week consolidating after falling near $94,000, retreating towards the $87,000 to $88,000 range while holding up better than the broader crypto market.
ETH: Ether underperformed over the past week, sliding into the $2,950 to $3,000 range as selling pressure on higher beta assets intensified and the rotation favored bitcoin.
Gold: Gold rose above $4,300 after the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly contracted in December, boosting safe-haven demand as U.S. manufacturing volatility resurfaced.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets mostly fell on Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s decline as investors exited US AI trading, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 1.14% and the Topix falling 1.05%.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Senate Postpones Crypto Market Structure Bill Until Next Year (CoinDesk)
- Bitcoin Hits One-Year Low in Active Addresses, Raising New Concerns About Demand for Block Space (The Block)
