- High-capacity DDR5 DRAM prices increased dramatically from late 2025 to early 2026
- TrendForce Forecasts Predict Continued Price Growth Despite Apparent Stabilization in Retail
- Server-focused modules have absorbed the majority of wafer production, reducing PC supply
A recent price trend from PCPartPicker suggests that memory prices may be stabilizing after months of volatility, particularly for higher capacity kits.
That apparent calm contrasts sharply with separate forecasts from TrendForce indicating that contract prices for PC DRAM could rise substantially in early 2026.
These conflicting signals reflect a market in which short-term retail averages and long-term supply agreements are moving on different trajectories.
Supply adjustments reshape availability
The gap between observed prices and prospective contracts has widened, creating uncertainty rather than comfort for buyers tracking DDR5 DRAM costs.
Memory vendors have made clear adjustments to how they allocate production capacity across product categories.
Server-focused modules have increasingly absorbed available wafer production, leaving laptops and related products exposed to tighter supply conditions.
Suppliers have combined this shift with selective allocation practices that favor large OEMs while reducing the volumes available to independent module manufacturers.
This supply discipline has created room for upward contract revisions as vendors narrow historical pricing gaps between PC and server memory.
TrendForce data tracking average selling prices per gigabit shows limited movement through most of 2025.
From the first quarter to the third quarter of the year, both PC and server memory lines remain practically stable, indicating controlled supply and stable demand.
That pattern changes abruptly during the last quarter of the year, when prices in both segments begin to rise almost simultaneously.
Prices for server-class DDR5 RDIMMs rise more sharply, while prices for PC-focused SODIMMs follow a gentler upward slope, confirming that the change was market-wide and not isolated.
The biggest movement appears between the end of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, when contract prices increase rapidly.
trend force Projections show continued increases through the rest of 2026, although at a slower pace after the initial jump.
Importantly, the forecast does not show any reversal or correction once prices reach higher levels.
Instead, both PC and server DRAM seem to settle into a higher sustained range, with server memory maintaining a constant premium per gigabit.
Demand for large-scale AI deployments is at the center of this volatile pricing situation.
Data center operators continue to scale memory-dense systems to support training and inference workloads, increasing consumption of high-capacity DDR5 modules.
This sustained attraction of AI infrastructure has reinforced vendors’ preference for server and data center memory, which has indirectly restricted the availability of PC-centric products.
Many observers have described the recent slowdown in price increases as a stabilization, although the underlying data does not indicate improved affordability.
Prices appear to stabilize only after reaching levels that limit purchasing activity.
This pattern suggests that stability may reflect buyer resistance rather than healthier supply conditions.
If demand remains limited while suppliers maintain current allocation strategies, elevated prices could persist longer than many market participants expect.
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