- The success of eSIM and iSIM comes from connected logistics, smart energy meters and more IoT
- There could be 210 million iSIM connections in 2028, up from 10 million in 2026
- Push provisioning from servers is the new way to implement IoT eSIM
New data has predicted that eSIM adoption will increase 30% in 2026 to reach 1.5 billion devices, up from 1.2 billion in 2025, but demand is not actually coming from smartphones or consumer contracts.
Juniper Research projections claim that connected logistics, oil and gas, and smart street lighting will be the three largest sectors driving eSIM adoption, adding approximately 75 million new connections to global networks in 2026.
This comes from GSMA’s SGP.32 IoT eSIM standard, which was released in 2025 and enables server-driven mass activation for easier connections.
eSIM numbers increased, but not from phones
But the analyst firm is concerned about a key challenge to eSIM advancement: the industry is moving from a pull model in which devices download a profile individually to a push model in which centralized departments supply eSIM to multiple devices simultaneously.
With this shift in deployment patterns, Juniper is requiring eSIM platforms to develop their own push provisioning capabilities to support what appears to be growing enterprise demand for IoT eSIMS.
“For enterprise IoT users, it is inefficient to use a pull model to provision so many devices, and eSIM platforms must adapt,” explained senior research analyst Ardit Ballhysa.
Separate research from Juniper in 2024 also predicted a similar rise in iSIMs, which are similar to eSIMs but are integrated directly into the device’s existing components, so they do not require a separate SIM module. Growth of 1,200% was predicted, from 800,000 in 2024 to 10 million in 2026, driven by the GSMA’s latest SGP.41/42 specifications designed to standardize and simplify iSIM implementation.
iSIMs find use in smart energy meters, remote logistics tools, and small form factor devices that require low power consumption.
Additionally, Juniper expects 210 million iSIM connections by 2028.
“eSIM vendors must ensure they provide standards-agnostic platforms that are flexible for upcoming form factors, standards, and use case demands,” wrote report author Elisha Sudlow-Poole.
Outside the realm of business eSIM provisioning, new figures from CCS Insight also show that consumer demand is also increasing, particularly for travel, where a quarter of UK consumers have already used an eSIM to access local rates.
eSIMs are preferred for their convenience and cost-saving benefits, and frustration over upcoming mobile device price rises is leading almost half (45%) of Brits to use SIM-only deals and prolong device upgrade cycles.
Although consumer eSIMs retain the familiar pull model, it is clear that demand for non-physical SIMs is increasing and networks must be prepared for this.
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