Prediction markets are increasingly presented not as betting platforms but as vehicles for monetizing information, although the founders acknowledged that the line may blur depending on user intent at Consensus Hong Kong 2026.
Ding X, founder of Predict.fun, argued that prediction markets are more like insurance underwriting or poker than roulette. “It’s more about exchanging information and trying to hedge risk than it is about betting,” he said, distinguishing skill-based forecasts from games where long-term odds guarantee losses.
Farokh Sarmad, co-founder of DASTAN, agreed that speculation exists, but described the sector as “a multibillion-dollar asset class in the making.” In his view, prediction markets are simply “funding information,” allowing participants to monetize knowledge rather than leaving value solely to media companies or bookmakers.
Jared Dillinger, CEO of New Prontera Group and a former professional athlete, said the classification depends largely on how the platforms are built and used. “It’s just in the eyes of the beholder,” he said, adding that prediction markets function as “an information asset class,” even if some users approach them as if they were gambling.
The most pressing challenge is insider trading. High-profile examples – from leaked entertainment playlists to geopolitical events – have highlighted the risk of information asymmetry.
“Insider trading is not okay,” Sarmad said, noting that blockchain transparency can make suspicious wallets visible. Still, Dillinger acknowledged the limits of application. “There will always be some loopholes that people will find.”
As trading volumes increase and regulators take notice, the founders agreed that surveillance tools, clearer disclosure rules and stronger platform governance will determine whether prediction markets mature into a recognized financial category or continue to be viewed as speculative bets.
