- RAM crisis will bring “seismic” changes to phones, according to new report
- That means raising prices and changing specifications.
- The changes could be long-lasting and potentially permanent.
If you’ve been thinking about upgrading your computer, it’s been hard to avoid the news about rapidly rising component prices caused by the current RAM shortage. The impact on top phones has been less clear, but a new report highlights how it could dramatically affect the smartphone world in the coming months.
The report comes from technology analysts IDC (via Bloomberg) and makes for some pretty grim reading. According to IDC, the global smartphone market will contract by 12.9% in 2026, causing a “crisis like no other” in the industry. In fact, IDC says past turmoil will pale in comparison, saying “tariffs and the pandemic crisis seem like a joke compared to this.”
The outlook for consumers is quite miserable. In response to memory shortages, Bloomberg says smartphone makers are “tightening specifications, eliminating unprofitable entry-level models and pushing consumers to buy more premium devices.”
And this may not be a temporary change either. IDC Senior Research Director Nabila Popal believes that “the smartphone market will witness a seismic shift when this crisis is over: in size, average selling prices and competitive landscape.”
For its part, Bloomberg believes that the current situation will last until 2027 and that “even when supply is replenished, returning to old pricing structures now seems unlikely.”
Bad news, especially for Android
The current RAM crisis has been caused by the extreme demands of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, which has consumed most of the component supply for its data center needs, and is now having a knock-on effect on consumer devices.
As Bloomberg says: “Demand for advanced memory to power artificial intelligence tasks has depleted global supply well into next year and now endangers the business model of many smartphone makers.”
The state of the industry is particularly bad news for Android phones, where profit margins tend to be slim and prices tend to be low. IDC noted that entry-level devices could be particularly affected, as memory accounts for a larger proportion of manufacturers’ costs at this end of the market. Companies like Lenovo and Xiaomi have already warned that prices may have to rise.
Premium companies like Apple could weather the storm a little better, as their higher profit margins could allow them to absorb more of the cost increases rather than passing them on to consumers. That said, Apple CEO Tim Cook recently admitted that supply shortages could have a “slightly bigger impact” going forward than last year, raising the question of whether the company will have to raise prices.
IDC is not the only research company that maintains this pessimistic outlook. For example, Counterpoint analysts recently claimed that “2026 is shaping up to be the worst year in smartphone history” due to a “large-scale supply shock” caused by RAM shortages.
IDC’s Popal struck a somber tone by adding: “The days of cheap smartphones are long gone, as even when the crisis is over, we don’t expect memory prices to drop back to 2025 levels.” According to Bloomberg, some 170 million phones that cost less than $100 were sold in 2025, an entire segment whose maintenance now seems “uneconomical.”
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