What began as an Israeli attack on Iran hours earlier has become the largest military conflict in the Middle East in decades, posing a risk to financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
According to reports from Bloomberg, CNN and Reuters, Iran launched waves of missiles and drones targeting not only Israel but also US bases and interests throughout the Gulf. Bahrain confirmed that a US military base had been attacked. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates said they intercepted missiles over their territory. Explosions were heard in Dubai. Bahrain completely closed its airspace.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said all US bases and interests in the region would be attacked.
President Trump said the United States had begun “major combat operations in Iran” aimed at eliminating the country’s missile inventory, navy and nuclear infrastructure. “The lives of brave American heroes may be lost and we may suffer casualties,” he said. “That often happens in war.”
Bitcoin, which had already fallen below $64,000 in the initial Israeli attacks, remained above $63,000 when the wave of retaliation hit. The relative stability is partly mechanical. Weekend liquidity is tight and many leveraged positions that would amplify a liquidation have already been eliminated during the week’s decline from $70,000.
But the real test will come when traditional markets reopen on Monday. Bitcoin tends to absorb the first wave of geopolitical selling because it is the only major liquid asset that trades on Saturday afternoons.
Stocks, oil and bonds don’t have that option until Sunday night futures or Monday open. If those markets decline sharply, bitcoin could face a second wave of risk-off selling as portfolio managers de-risk across all asset classes simultaneously.
That could potentially open a path to $60,000 or lower.
Previous escalations in the Middle East have followed a pattern in which bitcoin falls on the initial shock and recovers once traditional markets absorb the news and the situation appears contained. Iran’s retaliatory attacks against Israel in April 2025 played out that way. So did previous tensions in 2020.
This time the containment thesis is much more difficult to formulate. The missile landing in Dubai, Kuwait and Bahrain is not a bilateral exchange. It is a regional war that affects some of the most economically sensitive territories on the planet.
The risk of falling is simple. If the conflict widens, oil prices could soar on both sides of the Atlantic, potentially leading to global risk aversion and deeper losses in bitcoin. While cryptocurrency is often considered digital gold, it has historically been traded more as a risk asset, not a safe haven.
The $60,000 floor that held during the February 5 crash becomes the next line of defense, and will be tested under much more severe conditions than a leverage dump.
