- Democrats criticize Trump for waging a “war of choice.”
- Three American soldiers killed and more wounded so far.
- Trump calls on Iranians to “take back” their country.
Trump administration officials acknowledged in closed-door briefings with congressional staff on Sunday that there was no intelligence to suggest Iran planned to attack U.S. forces first, two people familiar with the matter said.
The United States and Israel launched their most ambitious attacks on Iran in decades on Saturday, martyring Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sinking Iranian warships and hitting more than 1,000 targets so far, officials say.
But Sunday’s remarks before Congress appeared to undermine one of the key pro-war arguments made by senior administration officials.
They told reporters the day before that President Donald Trump decided to launch the strikes in part because of indicators that the Iranians might attack U.S. forces in the Middle East “perhaps preemptively.”
Trump, one of the officials said, was not going to “sit back and allow US forces in the region to absorb the attacks.”
The Pentagon briefings lasted more than 90 minutes.
Pentagon officials briefed Democratic and Republican staff on several national security committees in both the Senate and House of Representatives for more than 90 minutes about the U.S. attack on Iran, White House spokesman Dylan Johnson previously said.
In the briefings, administration officials emphasized that Iran’s ballistic missiles and proxy forces in the region posed an imminent threat to U.S. interests, but there was no intelligence about Tehran attacking U.S. forces first, said the two sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Reuters.
Trump said the attack, which is expected to last weeks, was aimed at ensuring that Iran could not obtain a nuclear weapon, contain its missile program and eliminate threats to the United States and its allies.
He has urged Iranians to rise up and overthrow the government.
Democrats criticize ‘war of choice’
Still, Democrats have accused Trump of waging a war of choice and pointed to his arguments for abandoning peace talks that mediator Oman said still held promise.
Trump has argued, without presenting evidence, that Iran was on track to soon secure the ability to attack the United States with a ballistic missile.
His claim about the missiles was not supported by US intelligence reports and appeared exaggerated, sources familiar with the reports said. Reuters.
Questions about the justification of the war arise as the US military on Sunday revealed the first American casualties of the conflict.
Skepticism about regime change
Following the martyrdom of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei, many senior US officials remain skeptical that the US and Israeli military operation against the Islamic Republic will lead to regime change any time soon.
Before and after the start of the attack, US officials, including President Trump, had suggested that overthrowing the nation’s repressive system of government was one of several US goals, in addition to crippling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
“I call on all Iranian patriots who long for freedom to seize this moment… and take back their country,” Trump said Sunday in a video posted on Truth Social.
But three U.S. officials familiar with U.S. intelligence said there is serious skepticism that Iran’s battered opposition can topple the theocratic and authoritarian system of government that has been in place since 1979.
No official consulted by Reuters completely ruled out the possibility of the fall of Iran’s government, which is currently plagued by losses of key personnel due to continued US and Israeli airstrikes and is deeply unpopular after an extraordinarily violent round of repression in January.
But this is far from likely or even likely in the short term, they said.
Reuters previously reported that Central Intelligence Agency assessments presented to the White House in the weeks before the Iran attack concluded that if Khamenei was killed, he could be replaced by hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps figures or equally hardline clerics, two sources said.
A U.S. official with knowledge of internal White House deliberations said IRGC officials are unlikely to capitulate voluntarily, in part because they have benefited from a vast patronage network designed to maintain internal loyalty.
The CIA assessments followed at least one report from a separate US intelligence agency that noted there had been no defections from the IRGC during a massive round of anti-government protests in January that was met with brutal force by Iranian security forces.
These defections would likely be a precondition for any successful revolution, according to three additional sources. Those sources requested that the specific intelligence agency not be named.
all sources Reuters I spoke for this story and requested anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments.
Trump himself said Sunday that he planned to reopen communications with Iran, suggesting that Washington doesn’t see the administration going anywhere, at least in the immediate term.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment, while the CIA declined to comment.
Much debate, less consensus
On Sunday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a leadership council consisting of himself, the head of the judiciary and a member of the powerful Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the duties of Supreme Leader.
Security chief Ali Larijani accused the United States and Israel of trying to loot and disintegrate Iran and warned “secessionist groups” of a harsh response if they attempted any action, state television said on Sunday, after the two countries launched a wave of airstrikes against Iran that included the bombing of a girls’ primary school. Reuters could not independently confirm the state media reports.
US intelligence discussions about the implications of a possible assassination of Khamenei have not been limited to whether it could lead to a change in government leadership.
Two of the U.S. officials said that since January, there has been significant debate — but not consensus — among officials from various agencies about the extent to which Khamenei’s assassination would lead to a significant change in the way Iran approached negotiations with the United States over its nuclear program.
U.S. officials have also debated the extent to which Khamenei’s death or overthrow would deter the country from rebuilding its nuclear or missile facilities and capabilities, said those officials, who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive internal conversations.
After the January protests, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy and key ally, spoke several times with Iranian opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last shah, raising questions about the extent to which the administration would support his installation should Iran’s government fall, two officials said.
But in recent weeks, senior U.S. officials have become increasingly pessimistic that any Washington-backed opposition figure is truly capable of controlling the country, those officials added.
“At the end of the day, once the American and Israeli attacks stop, if the Iranian people come out, their success in promoting the end of the regime will depend on whether the grassroots stay out of it or align with them,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former senior U.S. intelligence official who now works at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.
“Otherwise, the remnants of the regime, those who have the weapons, will probably use them to stay in power.”
Three American soldiers dead
Three U.S. soldiers were killed and five seriously wounded, U.S. Central Command said Sunday, adding that several other U.S. soldiers suffered minor shrapnel wounds and concussions.
American planes and warships have attacked more than 1,000 Iranian targets since Trump ordered the start of major combat operations, the military said.
The attacks include B-2 stealth bombers dropping 2,000-pound (900 kg) bombs on hardened Iranian underground missile facilities.
TO Reuters/Ipsos Sunday’s poll showed that 27% of Americans approved of the attacks, while 43% disapproved and 29% were unsure.
