Glassnode’s RHODL index, a key on-chain metric that tracks the balance between long- and short-term bitcoins headlines, is showing signals more consistent with a market bottom than a cycle top, after reaching a ratio of 4.5.
Currently sitting at its third-highest level on record, the indicator shows wealth is increasingly concentrated in older currencies as younger, speculative holdings have been largely wiped out during the 50% correction in bitcoin over the past six months.
The index compares the value of coins held by long-term investors, generally those who hold them for six months to three years, with coins held by short-term participants, defined as one day to three months. By measuring this balance, it provides insight into whether the market is dominated by experienced holders or by new demand from new entrants.
A rising ratio often reflects aging currencies and a decline in speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers. This dynamic usually arises after strong corrections that can be observed in 2015, 2019 and 2022.
There are two times when the RHODL index has been higher than now: 2015 (ratio of 5) and 2022 (ratio of 7), both cycle lows, which could suggest there are more downsides for bitcoin.
However, reaching even higher levels typically requires an even deeper collapse in short-term holder activity and a near-total depletion of demand, conditions that are less evident today given the 25% price recovery from February lows, negative perpetual funding rates, and the broader macroeconomic risk environment that has seen the S&P 500 reach new all-time highs.
