By Francisco Rodrigues (All times Eastern Time unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin fell more than 3.5% to below $67,000 as rising tensions in the Middle East drove investors out of risk assets and into the US dollar.
As the conflict escalates, Iran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supply.
Shipping rates for crude oil and liquefied natural gas tankers rose after vessels were attacked in the region and several operators suspended operations. Brent crude oil has risen more than 13% in the past five days, while transportation costs for large tankers have hit record highs.
The shock is affecting the financial markets. The dollar index (DXY) is up almost 1% and US Treasury yields rose as investors move away from risk assets including cryptocurrencies, reflecting expectations that central banks may face renewed inflationary pressure due to rising fuel costs.
Bitcoin had briefly approached $70,000 earlier in the week, but reversed course when the conflict broke out. However, cryptocurrency prices have remained range-bound despite the rally.
The initial US attack on Iran over the weekend pushed bitcoin and ether lower, triggering around $300 million in long liquidations, but analysts at QCP Capital described the deleveraging as orderly compared to previous episodes earlier this year.
Analysts added that options markets showed a brief increase in short-term volatility, although positioning suggests traders were prepared for the weekend risk.
“If we think back to the previous US attack on Iran last June (also a weekend), BTC broke below $100,000 when the news broke only to trade back above it on Monday, and subsequently rose to a high of $123k a few weeks later,” analysts at QCP Capital wrote. “While the scale of this attack is much larger than last year, the price action could be hinting at early signs of history repeating itself.”
Options flows show that buyers are positioning for a possible rally beyond the $70,000 mark. That suggests investors are expecting a rebound this month after the market’s severe decline.
The Strait of Hormuz remains central to the standoff, with conflicting statements from Iranian and US officials about whether the waterway is closed. US President Donald Trump has said the war is expected to last “four to five weeks.” Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- March 3: SolCex mobile application launched on Google Play and Apple App Store.
- Macro
- March 3, 5:00 am: Eurozone annual inflation rate for February (previously 1.7%); Core YoY (previously 2.2%)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 3: Antalpha Platform Holdings (ANTA), pre-market, $0.19
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- ShapeShift DAO is voting to appoint PTT as Tokenomics Workflow Lead for a period of 6 months, compensated entirely in FOX tokens to eliminate stablecoin costs. Voting ends March 3.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to explore automatic execution of approved proposals and flexible term limits for signer keys while maintaining emergency oversight. Voting ends March 3.
- Unlock
- Token releases
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 3% since 4 pm ET on Monday to $66,918.56 (24 hours: +0.57%)
- ETH is down 4.04% to $1,959.34 (24 hours: no change)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 3.45% to 1,927.49 (24 hours: +0.59%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 1bp to 2.86%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0009% (-1.0162% annualized) on Binance
- DXY rises 0.89% to 99.25
- Gold futures fall 0.30% to $5,278.60
- Silver futures down 4.65% to $84.18
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.06% at 56,279.05
- Hang Seng closed down 1.12% at 25,768.08
- The FTSE 100 falls 2.76% to 10,478.54
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 3.49% to 5,777.18
- DJIA closed Monday down 0.15% at 48,904.78
- The S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,881.62
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.36% at 22,748.86
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.59% at 34,541.30
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 0.82% to 3,741.78
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 9 basis points to 4.05%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 1.83% to 6,762.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 2.30% to 24,448.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 1.74% to 48,104.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.81%
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.029284
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $29.14
- Total fees: 2.65 BTC / $179,647
- CME Futures Open Interest: 104,220 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.8 oz
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.46%
Technical analysis
- Weekly BTC/USD remains technically capped below the 200-week EMA, with a weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 27.89 and a lack of bullish divergence confirming a sideways swing between $65,000 and $70,000.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $185.24 (+5.34%), –5.64% to $174.80 in premarket
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.73 (+5.54%), –5.66% to $20.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $9.45 (+5.70%), –4.97% to $8.98
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $16.43 (+0.86%), –5.11% to $15.59
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.49 (–2.83%), –3.76% to $15.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $10.55 (+6.03%), –4.83% to $10.04
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.47 (+2.65%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.43 (+1.38%), –4.23% to $38.72
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $96.14 (+15.22%), –6.57% to $89.82
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.81 (+7.71%), –2.69% to $32.90
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.65 (+6.29%), –4.42% to $131.56
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $8.73 (+9.95%), –4.24% to $8.36
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.39 (+8.36%), –5.41% to $6.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.88 (+32.73%)
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $458.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: $55.24 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $38.7 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.67 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.67 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi Rejects Solana Meme Coin After It Crashes 75% (CoinDesk) – Japan’s Prime Minister says she has no knowledge of or involvement in a Solana-based meme token that briefly reached a market capitalization of $27.7 million before crashing.
The Iran war live: Israel attacks Tehran and Beirut; Drones attacked the US embassy in Riyadh (Reuters): Explosions devastated Tehran and Beirut and financial markets around the world collapsed at the prospect of a prolonged disruption to global energy supplies due to US and Israeli attacks on Iran.
US Closes Two Embassies in Gulf as Iran Steps Up Retaliation (The New York Times) – The United States closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait after drone attacks and urged Americans to immediately leave 14 Middle Eastern countries, as Iran expanded its retaliatory strikes.
Dow Futures Fall; Oil prices rise (The Wall Street Journal): The futures of the three main US indices fell at least 1.4%. Stocks in Europe and Asia plunged and oil prices rose, as the Middle East conflict showed signs of escalating into its fourth day.
