By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin It appears to be gaining bullish momentum, with volatility expected to increase as prices approach a $3 billion trigger point.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value rose to $72,100 during European time, the widely followed average price over the past 50 days. According to analysts, a firm move above this level would confirm bullish momentum, which could attract more buyers.
Volatility is likely to increase if prices approach $75,000. That’s where options market makers, who provide liquidity to the order book and ensure a smooth trading experience, hold net “short gamma” positions worth $3 billion, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
It means that as prices rise towards that level, these entities are likely to buy to rebalance their net exposure to neutral even as prices rise. This so-called dealer covering could increase market volatility, potentially accelerating any rally. Keep in mind that market makers make money through the bid-ask spread, not price direction.
“The options market is showing approximately $3 billion of negative gamma exposure at the $75,000 strike, meaning traders are likely short gamma around this level. As Bitcoin moves towards this region, traders’ hedging flows may begin to play a larger role in shaping price dynamics,” Thielen said in a note to clients.
However, that is not a concrete scenario. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, is worried that macroeconomic headwinds will halt bitcoin’s gains.
“External factors are acting as a headwind, including rising oil and dollar prices, as well as the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices falling to their 200-day lows. We doubt Bitcoin will have the strength to withstand the wind for long, and internal resistance may soon become a major obstacle to growth,” he said in an email.
In fact, traditional markets are sending signals of risk aversion. The strongest indication comes from the US Treasury market, which underpins global finances. The MOVE index, which measures expected 30-day price turbulence for Treasuries, rose more than 21% to 95 points on Thursday, the biggest single-day rise since October 2024, according to data source TradingView.
Sharp spikes in Treasury bond volatility often tighten money around the world, stifling credit flows and triggering widespread selling across markets. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 13, 8:30 am: Second quarter-on-quarter estimate of the US GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter est. 1.4% (previously 1.4%;)
- March 13, 8:30 am: MoM US Core PCE Price Index for January est. 0.4% (previously 0.4%)
- March 13, 8:30 am: US monthly personal spending for January est. 0.3% (previously 0.4%)
- March 13, 10:00 am: US JOLTS job openings for January est. 6.7 million (previously 6.542 million)
- March 13, 10:00 am: Preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March (Previous 56.6)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 13: Bit Digital (BTBT), pre-market, -$0.01
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- There are no important calls scheduled.
- Unlock
- March 13 – WhiteBit Coin (WBT) will unlock 27.77% of its circulating supply worth $4.59 billion.
- Token releases
- March 13: Ether.fi KAT token rewards will be distributed.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 2.95% since 4 pm ET on Thursday to $72,457.14 (24 hours: +3.14%)
- ETH is up 2.92% to $2,128.69 (24 hours: +3%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 3.14% to 2,068.83 (24 hours: +3.01%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 1bp to 2.79%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0015% (1.6688% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.42% to 100.16.
- Gold futures fall 0.44% to $5,093.40
- Silver futures down 2.11% to $82.89
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.16% at 53,819.61
- Hang Seng closed down 0.98% at 25,465.60
- The FTSE 100 is down 0.43% to 10,260.60
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 0.71% to 5,708.34
- The DJIA closed Thursday down 1.56% at 46,677.85.
- The S&P 500 closed down 1.52% at 6,672.62
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.78% at 22,311.98
- S&P/TSX Composite closed down 0.84% at 32,840.60
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 1.43% at 3,611.39.
- The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 6 basis points to 4.27%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures up 0.30% to 6,697.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.29% to 24,631.50
- The E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index rises 0.34% to 46,881.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.44% (0.24%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0294 (0.01%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 984 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $31.34
- Total fees: 2.69 BTC / $188,598
- CME Futures Open Interest: 110,290 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.2 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.82%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the daily swings of the bitcoin price in candlestick format since the end of 2025. It also plots the Fibonacci retracements of the January-February sell-off and the 50-day simple moving average of the bitcoin price.
- BTC price seeks to break above the 50-day SMA line. That would shift attention to the next resistance level at $74,564, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff.
- On the other hand, failing to penetrate the 50-day SMA could embolden sellers, which could lead to a drop below $70,000.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Thursday at $193.23 (–2.72%), +1.96% to $197.02 in pre-market
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $114.18 (+1.21%), +0.58% at $114.84
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.63 (–3.87%), +1.89% to $21.02
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.76 (+2.46%), +1.60% to $8.90
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.50 (–2.09%), +1.59% at $14.73
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.24 (–1.81%)
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.55 (–2.65%), +1.57% to $9.70
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.96 (–8.71%), unchanged in the premarket
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.96 (–2.47%)
- Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $36.24 (–2.55%), +0.44% at $36.40
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $137.34 (–0.72%), +2.49% at $140.76
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): Closed at $8.83 (–4.33%), +1.59% at $8.97
- SharpLink (SBET): Closed at $7.48 (–1.45%), +2.54% at $7.67
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.93 (–9.71%), +4.61% to $0.97
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.15 (–1.71%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $53.8 million
- Accumulated net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $72.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.75 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.71 million
Source: Farside Investors
