Polymarket Traders Bets on Iran Ceasefire Even as Oil Crisis Concerns Remain – Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)

The Iran war alone has deteriorated the macroeconomic environment for risk takers in financial markets, and some participants are betting it could end soon.

Onchain data tracked by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory shows 10 wallets came to life on Sunday, betting a cumulative total of $160,000 on a ceasefire by the end of March and considering a potential payout of over $1,000,000. The wallets have no history of previous transactions and were created at the same time, raising suspicions of possible internal positioning on the result.

In any case, if the war ends, markets, including cryptocurrencies, could see a relief bounce.

For now, however, the conflict is in its fourth week and keeps valuations under pressure. bitcoin btc$70,921.03 remained below $69,000 at the time of writing, maintaining the weekend’s losses. Ether fell to $2,030, its sixth drop in seven days. XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), DOGE$0.09530 and others were also under pressure, while some privacy tokens like NIGHT and XMR stood out with gains of over 3% in the last 24 hours.

“The market is trading one issue above all others: geopolitical inflation. The weekend brought a new phase of escalation, including US pressure on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and new threats to regional energy infrastructure. That has kept oil risk elevated and left investors pricing in a longer period of tight financial conditions,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

“Bitcoin still has the cleanest value capture profile in crypto for this tape: scarce assets, improving institutional plumbing, and relative flow leadership versus the rest of the complex,” he said.

However, market flows have yet to validate that view. US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded capital outflows for the third day in a row on Friday, along with significant selling by large holders or whales.

Ether has also suffered huge sell-offs. A whale holding more than 130,000 ETH sold 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) at $2,063, according to Lookonchain.

In traditional markets, U.S. Treasury yields have risen to multi-month highs, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures linked to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels since early November. Stay alert!

Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to watch

For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Crypto
• Macro
  • March 23, 10:00 am: US monthly construction spending for January estimated 0.1% (previously 0.3%).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01

symbolic events

For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

• Governance votes and calls
  • Aave DAO is voting on deploying Aave V4 with a security-first initial configuration, conservative risk parameters, and a modular hub-and-spoke architecture. Voting ends on March 23.
  • Floki DAO is voting to rank entries for the third Floki Guerrilla Marketing Competition. Voting ends on March 23.
• Unlock
• Token releases
  • March 23 – HTX DAO Stake (HTX) Officially Launches

Conferences

For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

Market movements

• BTC is up 3.01% since 4 pm ET on Sunday to $71,044.86 (24 hours: +3.56%)
• ETH is up 5.07% to $2,168.32 (24 hours: +4.20%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.05% to 2,030.41 (24 hours: 2.56%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 13 Basis Points to 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0017% (-1.8177% annualized) on Binance

• DXY rises 0.45% to 104.30
• Gold futures fall 7.27% to $4,238.30
• Silver futures down 8.18% to $63.69
• The Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% at 51,515.49
• Hang Seng closed down 3.54% at 24,382.47
• The FTSE 100 is down 2.03% to 9,716.51
• The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 2.01% to 5,390.70
• DJIA closed Friday down 0.96% at 45,577.47
• The S&P 500 closed down 1.51% at 6,506.48
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.01% at 21,647.61
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.69% at 31,317.41
• The S&P 40 Latin America closed with a fall of 1.15% to 3,150.00
• The 10-year US Treasury rate rises 11 basis points to 4.39%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures up 1.03% to 6,626.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.54% to 24,231
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rise 1.15% to 46,147

Bitcoin Statistics

• BTC dominance: 58.89% (0.52%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02989 (-1.24%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 963 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $32.30
• Total fees: 2.07 BTC / $142,462
• CME Futures Open Interest: 116,195 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 16 oz.
• BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.58%

Technical analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in the 30-day bitcoin implied (expected) volatility index, BVIV, since October.
• BVIV has bounced up to 59% from 53% on Wednesday, and more gains may be in the offing.
• This is because the 50-day SMA is well above the 200-day SMA and is trending north. It shows that the short-term trend is bullish.
• Increased volatility is usually a characteristic of a bear market.

Crypto Stocks

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $197.50 (-2.67%), -2.78% at $192 in premarket
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.72 (-1.57%), -3.19% at $20.06
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.46 (-8.24%), -3.07% at $8.20
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.38 (-5.37%), -4.33% at $12.80
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.81 (-4.07%), -2.09% at $15.48
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.40 (-4.37%), -3.19% at $9.10
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.38 (-4.53%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.68 (-3.63%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $126.03 (-1.79%), -4.36% at $120.54
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.97 (-4.12%), -4.40% at $36.30

Crypto treasury companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $135.66 (-1.87%), -2.70% at $132.00
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.40 (-3.65%), -4.46% at $7.07
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.02 (-2.34%), -3.79% at $9.64
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.06 (-0.93%), -6.59% at $0.99
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17

ETF Flows

BTC Spot ETF

• Daily net flows: -$52 million
• Accumulated net flows: $56.21 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

ETH Spot ETF

• Daily net flows: -$42 million
• Accumulated net flows: 11.76 billion dollars
• Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

while you were sleeping