Monday’s ceasefire lasted approximately 18 hours.
Bitcoin rose 3.1% to $70,352 on Tuesday morning, recovering from the weekend’s drop below $68,000, with ether (ETH), solana SOL, dogecoin and xrp gaining between 2 and 4%.
The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday that Saudi Arabia agreed to give U.S. military access to King Fahd Air Base, reversing its previous position that its bases could not be used to attack Iran. The United Arab Emirates has taken similar steps.
Directly joining the Gulf States into the war would transform the conflict from a US-Israel operation to a broader regional coalition, a significant escalation from what markets had been pricing in.
Iran’s vice president ruled out talks with the United States, echoing the Fars news agency’s denial on Monday night. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed and only a small number of vessels pass through the strait.
Traditional markets responded immediately. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%. European shares were expected to fall 0.8% at the open. Brent crude rose 4% to about $104. The dollar strengthened by 0.3%. Gold fell 1.5%, extending what is now its longest daily losing streak on record.
The collapse of gold remains the most disorienting signal in global markets. A safe haven asset falling into record losing streaks during an active and widening war breaks all historical precedents.
The most likely explanation is forced selling by funds facing margin calls on other positions, with gold being the most liquid asset to sell. But whatever the cause, it makes bitcoin’s relative stability all the more notable. The token that is supposed to be volatile maintains a range, while the one that is supposed to be stable is in free fall.
The five-day window Trump gave Iran expires Saturday, but Saudi Arabia’s addition to the conflict changes the calculus entirely. A regional coalition fighting Iran is a different war than an air campaign between the United States and Israel and puts oil infrastructure on both sides of the Gulf at risk.
Bitcoin is at $70,000 on a Tuesday morning when everything else is deteriorating. Whether this is resilience or simply the market waiting for the next headline to react is the question that will be answered for the rest of the week.
