By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
Bitcoin It has been trading in a tight range lately, with volatility rates surprisingly calm despite the Iran war, oil crises and expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes looming over the market.
Bulls call it resilience. But if we zoom out and look at other markets, perhaps it is simply complacency and could lead to a brutal reality check.
Take oil, for example. WTI is up 37% this month to $91.84, and some analysts say $200 is not out of the question. Call options on oil are now three times more expensive than put options. That’s a pretty clear sign of massive bullish positioning. All of this means more inflation and economic shocks ahead.
In the US Treasury market, the MOVE index, which tracks expected volatility in the backbone of global finance, has soared 33% to 98.00. Increased debt volatility in the world’s largest economy, which underpins global finances, typically leads to a credit crunch around the world.
Compare that to bitcoin’s implied volatility index, BVIV, which has actually fallen between 7% and 54%. Resilience or complacency? Some companies think it is the latter.
“Notably, short-term implied volatilities have compressed to their lowest levels since February, indicating a degree of market complacency regarding this tail risk,” TDX Strategies said in a market note.
The firm recommends “gamma stacking,” basically betting on big moves in select altcoins, as an indirect hedge for your portfolio.
As of now, bitcoin is down 2.4% on the day to $69,500. Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and solana (SOL) are doing the same, while non-serious tokens like They are suffering a bigger blow, with a drop of almost 5%.
The backdrop doesn’t help: Iran just rejected the US peace plan, setting conditions that include closing all US bases in the Gulf, reparations for the attacks, lifting all sanctions and keeping its missile program unrestricted. The United States will likely disagree, leaving the situation stagnant and risk assets on edge.
The dollar index is rising, Treasury yields are rising and US stock index futures are in the red. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 26, 8:30 a.m.: US initial jobless claims for week ending March 21, approximately 210,000 (was 205,000)
- March 26, 4:00 pm: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s “Reflections on Financial Stability” speech at Yale
- March 26, 7:00 pm: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson’s speech on “Economic Outlook and Energy Effects” at the Global Perspectives Speaker Series, Dallas
- March 26, 7:10 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr’s “Economy” speech, Washington, DC
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 26: Hyperion DeFi (HYPD), pre-market, -$4.62
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Unlock
- Token releases
- March 26: Katana Network (KAT) Epoch 1 begins for KAT rewards
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 1.63%% since 4 pm ET on Wednesday to $69,946.60 (24 hours: -2.67%)
- ETH is down 4.04% to $2,079.75 (24 hours: -4.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 2.78% to 1,991.19 (24 hours: -3.91%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate remains unchanged at 2.74%
- BTC funding rate is -0.0023% (-2.5032% annualized) on Binance
- DXY rises 0.10% to 99.70
- Gold futures fall 2.91% to $4,417.60
- Silver futures down 6.11% to $67.94
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 0.27% at 53,603.65
- Hang Seng closed down 1.89% at 24,856.43
- The FTSE 100 is down 1.23% to 9,982.48
- The Euro Stoxx 50 falls 1.50% to 5,564.52
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.66% at 46,429.49
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.54% at 6,591.90
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.77% at 21,929.83
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.38% at 32,382.60
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed up 2.35% at 3,562.75
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 6 basis points to 4.33%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures down 0.83% to 6,585.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.96% to 24,135.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.76% to 46,355.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 59.98% (0.01%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.0299 (-1.65%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 976 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $32.89
- Total fees: 2.65 BTC / $188,510
- CME Futures Open Interest: 117,100 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.6 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.64%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows the daily price swings (UTC) of XRP in candlestick format since November 2025.
- XRP price has fallen below a triangular consolidation pattern represented by two converging trend lines.
- That’s a sign that the bears have established the path of least resistance down, opening the doors for deeper slides.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $181.10 (+0.03%), -2.07% to $177.36 in the previous market
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.33 (+0.14%), -1.73% to $20.96
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.28 (+0.36%), -2.42% to $8.08
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.16 (+5.79%), -2.51% to $14.78
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.05 (+1.19%), -2.87% to $16.56
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.96 (+3.97%), -2.01% to $9.76
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.29 (+1.25%)
- CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.30 (+3.68%)
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $103.86 (+2.66%), -2.52% to $101.24
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.43 (+0.16%), -1.63% to $36.82
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $139.13 (+2.11%), -2.03% at $136.31
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.85 (+9.26%), -1.84% to $10.65
- Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.28 (+1.53%), -3.98% to $6.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.19 (+7.21%), -1.68% to $1.17
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+0.00%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $7.8 million
- Accumulated net flows: $56.31 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$8.5 million
- Accumulated net flows: $11.69 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~5.75 million
Source: Farside Investors
