US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday that the US is “in serious talks with a new, more reasonable regime” to end military operations in Iran, the first public acknowledgment of regime change in Tehran since the conflict began five weeks ago.
The phrase “new regime” suggests that the leadership structure that existed when the war began no longer exists.
However, in the same post, Trump demanded that the Strait of Hormuz be “immediately open for business” and threatened to “blow up and completely destroy” Iran’s power plants, oil wells and Kharg Island if a deal is not reached soon. He added that desalination plants are also being considered.
These are all targets that the United States has deliberately avoided attacking during the five weeks of the conflict.
The combination of a potential ceasefire with a new government and the most explicit threat to civil and energy infrastructure yet makes this a two-sided headline that the market will struggle to price cleanly.
The sign of de-escalation is that talks are taking place with a new regime and “great progress” has been made. The sign of escalation is that the president has just publicly listed every piece of critical infrastructure he is willing to destroy if those talks fail.
Bitcoin jumped to $67,580 on the news, up 1.3% in the last 24 hours. Ether fared better, rising 3.1% to $2,064. Solana gained 1.9% to $84.09 and XRP added 1.0% to $1.35. The weekly picture remains uniformly red, with BTC down 1.3%,
Meanwhile, the rebound squeezed many shorts on the way up. CoinGlass data shows $9.32 million in short liquidations in the last hour alone versus just $207,000 in long liquidations.
Traders took on $340 million in liquidations over a 24-hour period, absorbing the bulk of $242.25 million in overnight flow before Trump’s post hit. The largest single order was a $9.8 million BTCUSD liquidation on Bybit.
