bitcoin still hovering around $75,000 as it hits a supply wall while institutional demand remains stable, as traders weigh progress in US-Iran peace talks during a two-week ceasefire.
The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) rose about 1.9% in the last 24 hours, compared to 1% for bitcoin, amid reports of an extension of the ceasefire, which improved risk sentiment.
The increases are accompanied by a weaker US dollar, which fell to a near six-week low, and a decline in Treasury yields, conditions that often support cryptocurrency prices by reducing the relative attractiveness of holding cash. Gold also gained, pointing to a market balancing risk appetite with hedging demand.
Still, the backdrop remains tense. The US blockade of Iranian ports and Iran’s threats to disrupt shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf and nearby waterways continue to cloud the outlook for the global economy.
Energy supply shocks have already begun to fuel inflation expectations, a factor that could change central bank policy and affect crypto markets.
On-chain data also shows that bitcoin supply tends to appear when prices reach key cost levels for short-term holders. That’s around $76,800, a level that could act as resistance as investors cash out when they break even.
Derivatives positioning
- Crypto futures open interest (OI) has increased 2.5% in the last 24 hours, even as trading volume fell 16% and liquidations fell 48% to $220 million.
- The divergence suggests that traders are adding or holding positions despite a slowdown in activity, pointing to a buildup of exposure without strong conviction. The sharp drop in liquidations indicates lower volatility and fewer forced exits.
- Among the major tokens, XRP and DOGE stand out with OI increases of at least 3%, showing a bullish combination of positive perpetual funding rates and OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD).
- DOGE has the most positive 24-hour CVD, indicating that buyers have been more aggressive in raising bids and driving trades.
- On the Hyperliquid decentralized exchange, commodity-linked perpetual companies continue to do strong business and now account for 30% of the platform’s total notional open interest.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum’s 30-day implied volatility indices, BVIV and EVIV, continue to fluctuate below their 200-day averages, indicating calm in the market.
- In the BTC options market, one-week implied volatility is now trading cheaper relative to realized or actual volatility. In other words, short-term options are now cheap. This type of setup often causes traders to place bullish volatility bets through mixed/strangled strategies that involve purchasing both call and put options.
- Bitcoin and ether options listed on Deribit continue to show a bias towards puts. The persistent demand for downside hedging indicates that the sustainability of the recent rally is still in question.
symbolic talk
- CoW Swap, a decentralized exchange aggregator linked to the CoW protocol, suffered a domain name system (DNS) hijacking attack on Tuesday that redirected users to a malicious site and drained funds from connected wallets.
- The breach did not affect the protocol’s smart contracts or back-end systems. Instead, the attackers used social engineering to gain control of the project’s domain registrar, allowing them to redirect traffic from cow.fi to a cloned interface designed to capture wallet approvals.
- The losses appear to be limited to the affected users and not to the protocol itself. On-chain data points to at least $1 million being depleted, including a single wallet that lost 219 ETH.
- The COW token fell around 2.6% that day, with trading volume increasing as the news spread. Prices continued to fall in the following sessions and are now 11% lower.
- CoW DAO regained control of the cow.fi domain a little over half a day ago, but trust in the protocol does not appear to have improved. The token is down another 6% since then.
