bitcoin is testing $76,000 for a third day, trading at $75,440 as bullish traders continue to eliminate $450 million of sell orders between $75,900 and $76,300, CoinGlass data shows.
Orders will be placed by traders who are attempting to short the range high in expectation of a reversal to around $68,000, and those defending against a breakout with higher liquidation risk.
US stocks rose to record levels on Thursday as the war in Iran appears to be coming to an end following a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
The cryptocurrency market has outperformed stocks since the start of the war and is now taking a backseat.
Derivatives positioning
- Activity in the cryptocurrency futures market has picked up, with bitcoin briefly surpassing $76,000 during European trading hours. Total market volume has increased by 28% to $225.8 billion, while open interest (OI) has increased by more than 1.5% to $126.68 billion.
- Most notably, total liquidations have increased 140% to $529 million, with short positions slightly outweighing longs, suggesting a slight tightening of short positions and a build-up of bullish pressure in the market.
- Solana’s SOL is leading OI growth among the largest cryptocurrencies. In 24 hours, the number of active contracts in Solana futures increased by 11% to 5.53 billion SOL, the most since March 18. Dogecoin is another standout, with OI hovering around a six-month high of 14.17 billion DOGE.
- SOL’s capital inflows appear to be driven by a growing appetite for bullish positioning, with positive funding rates and 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicating increasingly aggressive buying pressure.
- Signals for dogecoin remain mixed, as a positive CVD points to buying pressure, while slightly negative funding rates suggest persistent bearish sentiment among derivatives traders.
- Cardano’s ADA leads on an OI-adjusted CVD basis, pointing to strong buyer dominance and bullish positioning.
- The volatility crisis continues, pointing to market calm and supporting further bullish price action. BTC’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has fallen to a new 2.5-month low of 43.35%. The Ether index EVIV is trading near the recent low of around 65%.
- On Deribit, BTC and ETH options continue to show a bias towards puts as a sign of persistent bearish fears. Overall, the market appears positioned for gains, but is not yet willing to turn bullish.
symbolic talk
- Altcoins lagged bitcoin on Friday as traders waited for a possible breakout or rejection before placing speculative bets.
- The heavily bitcoin-weighted CoinDesk 5 Index (CD5) is up 0.8% since midnight UTC, while the altcoin-dominated CoinDesk 100 (CD100) is marginally in the red.
- The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) was the worst-performing benchmark, losing around 2.8% as several tokens gave up most of Thursday’s gains.
- CoinMarketCap’s “Altcoin Season” indicator is at 37/100, a neutral area after reaching 53/100 last month and 19/100 in February.
- While the broader altcoin market is depressed, a small corner of the market is doing better; KAS added 3.9%, while PENDLE and AERO gained 3.5% and 2.5%, respectively.
