Bitcoin and other risk assets have become increasingly sensitive to statements from US President Donald Trump, with markets often swinging up or down within minutes of his social media posts or policy announcements to the media.
This has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers, academics and market experts, as questions grow over whether such price movements have created lucrative opportunities for market manipulation or insider trading.
A recent study from Oxford University Law School found sharp swings in global markets following rapid changes in US tariff policy, including a sequence in which prices in cryptocurrency and stock markets fell after new tariffs were announced, and then recovered after Trump partially reversed them days later.
The scale and timing of those moves, the author noted, created “fantastic trading opportunities” for anyone with advanced knowledge of the decisions. Furthermore, those back-and-forth decisions by Trump have been widely criticized and called the Trump Again Chickens Out (TACO) dynamic.
‘A good time to buy’
The issue gained further attention after Trump posted “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!” on Truth Social in April 2025, shortly before announcing a tariff adjustment that sent markets soaring, prompting calls from lawmakers, including Sen. Adam Schiff, for an investigation. in possible insider trading or market manipulation.
Analysts, experts and media reports have highlighted patterns of large, timely trades in commodity markets and predictions, in some cases made minutes before major political or military announcements.
“Many experts say the Trump administration has manipulated the market,” according to a March episode of CBC’s Front Burner, which noted unusually hugely profitable trades in oil futures ahead of announcements related to the war with Iran.
Democratic Congressman Stephen Lynch expressed similar concerns. He said trading activity linked to Trump’s major announcements “raised serious concerns about insider trading and market manipulation by government officials in possession of sensitive national security information.”
There is no evidence that Trump or his administration violated securities laws or intentionally manipulated markets for their own benefit, but the growing number of unusually timely market moves, combined with the administration’s direct influence over politics, geopolitics and regulation, has fueled a broader debate about whether the line between political decision-making and market impact is becoming increasingly blurred.
Here are five top moments when the price of bitcoin rose or fell due to a Trump statement or social media post, from the “Genesis” skepticism of 2019 to the naval blockades of 2026.
Top Five BTC Price Swings
1. July 11, 2019: Genesis post “I’m not a fan.” In his first direct broadside against the asset class, Trump posted on Twitter: “I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which are not money… and are based on air.” Bitcoin fell 7.1% in the 45 minutes after the thread.
2. March 3, 2025: the strategic reserve pivot. After a year of campaigning for cryptocurrencies, Trump confirmed via Truth Social that his “Strategic National Cryptocurrency Reserve” would include a basket of multiple cryptocurrency assets, most notably bitcoin. Bitcoin rose 8.2% in less than 24 hours, going from $84,000 to over $91,000.
3. October 10, 2025: 100% tariffs on China. In another Truth Social post, Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports to counter Beijing’s rare earth export controls. Bitcoin plunged 12.4% in about two hours, falling from its all-time high of $124,714 to $102,000. And within 24 hours, a $19.38 billion liquidation event had occurred, marking the largest single-day liquidation in the asset’s history.
4. March 3, 2026: Post on the anti-banking “Genius Act.” Trump took to Truth Social once again to criticize Wall Street banks for “undermining” the Genius Act and delaying passage of the Clarity Act on Stablecoin Yield Provisions. Bitcoin rose 5.2% in 10 minutes to $71,000. This moment highlighted the administration’s willingness to go to war with the legacy financial system to protect the crypto sector.
5. April 14, 2026: Peace talks. Following the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said Iran had “reached out” for possible peace talks and that a deal was “very possible.” Bitcoin rose 6.2% in 30 minutes, from $70,000 to almost $75,000.
It could happen again
Bitcoin soared to a more than two-month high above $78,000 on Friday after Trump essentially announced the end of the war and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. By the end of the day, however, there were already questions about what exactly the United States and Iran had agreed to.
On Saturday morning, the Iranian military said the Strait was closed again and there were reports that some ships made U-turns and others were attacked. Cryptocurrency prices were quickly giving back Friday’s gains, with bitcoin falling back below $76,000.
