Cryptocurrencies head into the new week with their Friday rally on shakier ground.
The announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil down and pushed risk assets higher, including bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The opening was reversed on Saturday, when Iran fired on ships trying to pass and the United States seized an Iranian-flagged oil tanker on Sunday.
With the ceasefire set to expire mid-week, traders will be watching whether the risk rotation can survive a new energy shock.
The technical level to observe is clear. Luke Nolan, senior ETH research associate at CoinShares, told CoinDesk that the follow-through depends on Bitcoin maintaining its ETF cost base near $74,000.
“With the reopening of Hormuz, oil has dropped and stocks have been bid back to ATHs, driving cryptocurrencies higher,” Nolan said. “The follow-through now depends on BTC remaining decisively above its ETF cost base (~$74k), which would confirm the risk-on rotation already visible in flows. ETF flows have turned positive over the last three sessions, and a rebound in that pace would support the bullish move.”
A decisive hold above $74,000 on the ceasefire deadline, coupled with a fourth consecutive session of positive ETF inflows, would validate the rotation thesis. A break below would bring volatility back to the sector.
What to watch
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- April 30: Comment period closes on the CFTC’s Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Prediction Markets.
- Macro
- April 20, 7:30 am: March YoY Canada Consumer Price Index (previously 1.8%); Basic rate (previously 2.3%)
- April 21, 1:30 p.m.: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller’s speech on “Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at the Brookings Institution, Washington, DC
- April 22, 1:00 am: UK year-on-year consumer price inflation for March (previously 3.0%); Basic rate (previously 3.2%)
- April 22, 7:30 pm: Japan S&P Global Services Flash PMI for April (previous 53rd); Manufacturing PMI (previously 51.6)
- April 23, 7:30 am: Canada Producer Price Index YoY for March (previously 5.4%); Monthly (previously 0.4%)
- April 23, 7:30 am: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 18 (Previous 207K)
- April 23, 8:45 am: S&P Global US Preliminary US Manufacturing PMI for April (previous 52.3); Services PMI (previously 49.8)
- April 23, 3:30 pm: US Federal Reserve balance sheet for the period ending April 22 (previous: $6.71 trillion)
- April 23, 6:30 pm: March YoY Japan Consumer Price Index (previously 1.3%); Core CPI (previously 1.6%)
- April 24, 3:00 am: Germany Ifo business climate for April (Previous 86.4)
- April 24, 9am: Final Michigan US Consumer Sentiment for April estimate 47.6 (previous 53.3)
- Earnings (estimates based on FactSet data when available)
- April 22: Tesla (TSLA), premarket, $0.3
- April 22: CME Group (CME), premarket, $3.29
- April 23: Nasdaq (NDAQ), pre-market, $0.93
symbolic events
- Governance votes and calls
- SafeDAO is voting to allocate 5 million SAFE tokens to fund a six-month bounty program and interface development for Safenet Beta. Voting ends April 20.
- Unlock DAO is voting on a payment plan to compensate members for their contributions to the collaboration platform during March and April. Voting ends April 20.
- RootstockCollective DAO is voting for a 20,000 USDRIF grant to fund a security audit for TYKORA Prize Vaults, a lossless savings protocol. Voting ends April 20.
- ENS DAO is voting to update its DNSSEC implementation by redirecting Algorithm 7 to a previously patched contract, adding proper padding validation to fix an omission from a previous security update. Voting ends April 21.
- Decentraland DAO is voting to reform its transparency infrastructure by establishing designated ownership for all recordkeeping systems, publishing strict maintenance standards, and creating a single accessible portal for the community to locate data. Voting ends April 22.
- The Telcoin Platform Council DAO is voting to allocate 50 million TEL to hire a strategic telecom advisor to drive GSMA adoption. Voting ends April 22.
- Aavegotchi DAO is voting to appoint nine multiple signers for 2026-2027, maintain a security threshold of 5 out of 9, set its quarterly compensation at $1,000 in GHST, and establish a succession plan. Voting ends April 22.
- Lightchain AI DAO is voting to explore the possibility of adding an optional Moonpay fiat onramp to its AI chat, focusing on feasibility and risks without committing funds or approving implementation yet. Voting ends April 23.
- Gitcoin DAO is voting to recover the remaining unclaimed fees from the discontinued public goods network (PGN). Voting ends April 24.
- Parallel DAO is voting to begin ending its V2 EUR stablecoin by halting most new issuance and imposing a punitive 50% lending rate to encourage users to pay off their existing debt. Voting ends April 24.
- Unlock
- April 20 – LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 5.35% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
- April 22: Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock 13.47% of its circulating supply worth $37.09 million.
- April 23: Toncoin (TON) will unlock 1.47% of its circulating supply worth $49.75 million.
- April 25 – Humanity Protocol (H) will unlock 4.02% of its circulating supply worth around $11.88 million.
- April 25: Avalanche (AVAX) will unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $15.6 million.
- April 26: Plasma (XPL) will unlock 3.73% of its circulating supply worth $10.10 million.
- Token releases
- April 21 – OpenGradient Token Generation (OPG) event occurs.
- April 21: USDAI CHIP token launched.
- April 22: The Wingbits (WINGS) token generation event occurs.
