NFL Confidential: How does the Dexter Lawrence trade affect the draft? Executives and explorers give their opinion


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Just before we were ready to submit our final mock drafts for the 2026 draft season, the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals decided they wanted to throw us a curveball and make a move that will have major ramifications for Thursday night’s festivities.

The Giants now have two picks in the top 10 after acquiring the Bengals’ 10th overall pick for Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence. While the trade was agreed to on Saturday night, we’ve already learned how New York is potentially planning to use its two top-10 picks, and that could lead to a top-five upset.

Of course, the Giants-Bengals trade isn’t the only draft news ahead of Thursday night’s first round. So, we polled our sources around the league for the latest on Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson and his draft status.

Here’s what we’ve learned about the Giants’ draft plans, why the Bengals made the trade and what to expect from Simpson in the 2026 NFL Draft.

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A giant shift in draft order could lead to another top-five offensive pick

Ralph Vacchiano: a few days ago, It seemed certain to many that the Giants were going to select a defensive player with the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft. But they now have two picks in the top 10 for the second time in five years, after acquiring the Bengals’ 10th overall pick in exchange for Dexter Lawrence.

They’ll almost certainly use one of them against a defensive player, but it’s less clear what they’ll do with the fifth.

“You have to change your mindset,” one NFL executive told me. “There are some elite offensive players that didn’t seem like a great fit for them, given how bad their defense has been and what we think Harbaugh wants to focus on. Now they can take one at the 5, and they might still get the defensive player they always wanted at the 10.”

It’s all speculation at the moment, but many NFL sources believe the Giants targeted Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles or 10-year Ohio State safety Caleb Downs, impact players who could emerge as leaders on the Giants’ defense. Opinion was divided on which player Harbaugh preferred. And many seem to believe that one, and perhaps both, could still be there at 10.

And that would open up some intriguing possibilities at No. 5. Much of the immediate speculation was about Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson, who an NFL scout told me last week “could be the best receiver in this draft when it’s all said and done.” He was considered one of the most “underrated” players in this year’s class, although he has risen in media derision and is now probably considered a top-10 pick.

The 6-foot-3, 203-pounder, who impressed scouts in his limited pro day workout on Friday, would give the Giants a dangerous 1-2 hit at catcher playing alongside a healthy Malik Nabers. He would also be insurance in case Nabers, who is recovering from a torn ACL, needs some time to regain his old form.

“Yeah [Tyson] “If he’s as good as I think he is, the Giants would be set up on offense for years to come,” the executive said. “[Quarterback] “Jaxson Dart would have everything he needs.”

Arizona State’s Jordyn Tyson could be headed to New York after Saturday’s trade. (Photo by Kevin Abele/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Two other intriguing offensive possibilities for the Giants at No. 5 are Notre Dame running back Jeremyiah Love, Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate and Miami (Florida) offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa (or whoever they rate as the top tackle in the draft).

“The fifth pick gives them the option of probably one of the two best offensive playmakers in the draft or the best offensive lineman, and they need both,” the scout told me. “And then if they can get Styles or Downs to the 10, that’s a home run.”

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Why the 10th pick wasn’t worth much to the Bengals

Vacchiano: The shock and surprise that the Bengals, of all teams, gave up the 10th overall pick in a trade was generally met with a touch of understanding. The way things seem to be set up on draft day, few seemed to think the draft was going to go the Bengals’ way.

There is no defensive tackle worthy of anything resembling a top-10 pick. The top edge rusher is most likely gone, along with the top cornerback and probably the top linebacker as well. Of course, nothing was assured, but they faced a board where they might not find immediate help on defense, the place where they needed it most.

“I think they knew they were in a really bad situation because of the way things were breaking down,” one NFL assistant general manager told me. “They could get a really good player at No. 10, but probably not in the position they need. And they’re not thinking two or three years down the road. They obviously think they can make a run now.”

The Bengals certainly have the offense to do it as long as quarterback Joe Burrow is healthy. But their focus this offseason has been rebuilding the league’s statistically worst defense. They brought in some help in free agency, such as running back Boye Mafe, defensive tackle Jonathan Allen and safeties Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger. But they were still looking for a true destroyer after losing Trey Hendrickson.

Lawrence has a better chance of being that than anyone they thought they could get at No. 10.

“They were going to have to make changes,” an NFC scout told me. “That’s the only thing that would have made sense, unless they just wanted to add another piece to their offense. That wasn’t going to help them. They’re desperate to fix their defense. That’s why the 10th pick might be a really high price to pay, but it also made a lot of sense.”

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Is Ty Simpson a first round pick? Opinions still vary on where Alabama’s QB lands

Eric D. Williams: With less than a week left and Ty Simpson’s draft stock seemingly rising, the league sources I spoke with still aren’t convinced the Alabama quarterback will be a first-round pick.

One NFL front office executive told me he doesn’t believe Simpson is a first-round talent. He identified the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers as possible candidates.

However, another league source familiar with the position believes a team could move up to secure Simpson’s services in the first round.

“I could see someone trading up to 32 to the Seahawks so they can get a fifth-year first-round option,” the league source told me. “That fifth-year option would be good. The Ravens traded up to get Lamar [Jackson] for that reason. Great move.

“Ozzie Newsome had the courage to do it coming out.”

Ty Simpson among Joel Klatt's 50 greatest players

The league source went on to say that he likes that Simpson played in a pro-style offense under offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb at Alabama. However, the league source still has concerns with Simpson’s size (6-1, 212 pounds) and the fact that he only started 15 games in college.

“It’s fluid,” the league source told me. “He sees the field well. He anticipates well. It’s easy to project him in the NFL because of the type of offense he ran in college. However, I would be concerned about playing him early since he hasn’t played in many games. That’s a concern for me as a first-rounder.”

The league source mentioned the Cardinals, Steelers, New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys as possible landing spots.

Meanwhile, an NFL agent I spoke with believes Simpson will be a second- or third-round pick.

“The only team I could see taking him in the first round [and it would be a very bad move] “It’s Arizona,” the NFL agent told me. “The Cardinals have a bad roster. They should add more picks, not give up picks to move up and get someone they don’t need to move up for.”

The agent compared Simpson to Matt Corral, Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder coming out of college, all quarterback prospects who rose during the draft process but so far have failed to make it happen in the NFL.

“All the talk is about the media, not the teams,” the NFL agent said of Simpson’s late rise on the draft board. “It wasn’t surprising that Will Levis didn’t go in the first round, or that Malik Willis went in the third round. They were better prospects than Simpson. He’s more like Corral and Sam Howell.”

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